Arsenal v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 3
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.53
Goals − xG
+0.23 – +0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
54.9%
Draw
24.9%
Brentford win
20.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–0.90 | 2-0 11% | 59% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 0.77 xGBrentford 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 21' |
 Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Oleksandr Zinchenko | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Saliba |
| 40' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 41' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ethan Nwaneri |
| 43' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | William Saliba |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | William Saliba |
| 60' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Declan Rice |
| 73' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.46 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Nathan Collins |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Jorginho | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Jakub Kiwior | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 95' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kiwior |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Leandro Trossard FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Jorginho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Declan Rice MC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| Thomas Partey DR | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ethan Nwaneri FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kieran Tierney DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jurriën Timber Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Nørgaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Mbeumo MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Kevin Schade FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Kayode Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gustavo Nunes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |