Arsenal v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 1.07
Goals − xG
+0.28 – -0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
59.5%
Draw
25.6%
Chelsea win
14.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWLWWW last 10
scored 16
from 20.1 xG
conceded 6
from 9.3 xG
Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWL last 10
scored 20
from 14.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.88–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–1.09 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 1.72 xGChelsea 1.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 6' |
 Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 7' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 9' |
Chelsea |
Mamadou Sarr | 0.57 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Arsenal |
William Saliba | 0.55 | From Corner | — | Goal | Gabriel |
| 28' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 36' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 36' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorrel Hato |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Piero Hincapié | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 51' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Reece James |
| 52' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Trevoh Chalobah |
| 56' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Reece James |
| 59' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 65' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.55 | From Corner | — | Goal | Declan Rice |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 86' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.55 | 0.16 |
| Bukayo Saka AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.62 | 0.12 |
| Leandro Trossard AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Nørgaard Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kai Havertz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Moisés Caicedo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Enzo Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Cole Palmer FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Reece James DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.13 |
| Jorrel Hato DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Andrey Santos MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Neto FWR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Romeo Lavia Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |