Arsenal v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.30 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
55.8%
Draw
24.2%
Chelsea win
20.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.88–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–1.04 | 2-1 10% | 61% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 0.70 xGChelsea 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 8' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
| 24' |
 Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Sánchez |
| 33' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 36' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 42' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley Fofana |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 61' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 84' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tyrique George |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| Mikel Merino FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kieran Tierney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Pedro Neto FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Enzo Fernández AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Wesley Fofana DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Reece James DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Christopher Nkunku AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jadon Sancho AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Romeo Lavia Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |