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Arsenal v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 20 January 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

5–0
3.52 – 0.29 xG
Shots
21 – 13
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+1.48 – -0.29
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.03.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Gabriel 10' — goalLeandro Trossard 58' — goalGabriel Martinelli 93' — goalGabriel Martinelli 94' — goal
Arsenal 3.52 xGCrystal Palace 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Joachim Andersen 2' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Gabriel Jesus 6' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gabriel 10' — Goal (0.29 xG, From Corner)Gabriel 21' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Leandro Trossard 26' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 30' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Nathaniel Clyne 31' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Jefferson Lerma 32' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gabriel 36' — Missed Shot (0.54 xG, From Corner)Dean Henderson 36' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Jesus 38' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Oleksandr Zinchenko 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Jeffrey Schlupp 40' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 45' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Declan Rice 46' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 46' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 47' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 48' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 49' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Jesus 56' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ben White 57' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 57' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Leandro Trossard 58' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 62' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 63' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Will Hughes 64' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Jeffrey Schlupp 65' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Bukayo Saka 74' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jorginho 76' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Martin Odegaard 78' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Oleksandr Zinchenko 88' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Chris Richards 90' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Martinelli 93' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Martinelli 94' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)
Arsenal attacking right Crystal Palace attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Crystal Palace Joachim Andersen 0.01 Set Piece Missed Shot Eberechi Eze
6' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
10' Arsenal Gabriel 0.29 From Corner Goal Declan Rice
21' Arsenal Gabriel 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Bukayo Saka
26' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Martin Odegaard
30' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
31' Crystal Palace Nathaniel Clyne 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
32' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
36' Arsenal Gabriel 0.54 From Corner Missed Shot Bukayo Saka
36' Crystal Palace Dean Henderson 0.00 From Corner Own Goal
38' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ben White
40' Arsenal Oleksandr Zinchenko 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
40' Crystal Palace Jeffrey Schlupp 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nathaniel Clyne
45' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Eberechi Eze
46' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Bukayo Saka
46' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Jesus
47' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Jesus
48' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Will Hughes
49' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Jesus
56' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Martin Odegaard
57' Arsenal Ben White 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
57' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Oleksandr Zinchenko
58' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gabriel Jesus
62' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jeffrey Schlupp
63' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
64' Crystal Palace Will Hughes 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Eberechi Eze
65' Crystal Palace Jeffrey Schlupp 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
74' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Martin Odegaard
76' Arsenal Jorginho 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
78' Arsenal Martin Odegaard 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Bukayo Saka
88' Arsenal Oleksandr Zinchenko 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
90' Crystal Palace Chris Richards 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Eberechi Eze
93' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Goal Eddie Nketiah
94' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jorginho

Players

Arsenal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Oleksandr Zinchenko DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.03 0.24
Martin Odegaard MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.09 0.12 0.30
Bukayo Saka FWR 90 0 0 2 4 0.05 0.73 0.71
Ben White DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.08 0.14
William Saliba DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.72
David Raya GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.02
Gabriel DC 85 1 0 3 0 0.91 0.00 0.23
Gabriel Jesus FW 85 0 1 3 4 0.25 1.08 1.33
Declan Rice MC 77 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.29 0.13
Leandro Trossard FWL 73 1 0 5 0 1.10 0.00 1.10
Kai Havertz MC 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.77
Gabriel Martinelli Sub 17 2 0 2 0 0.97 0.00 1.05
Emile Smith-Rowe Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jorginho Sub 13 0 1 1 1 0.01 0.49 0.49
Eddie Nketiah Sub 5 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.48 0.48
Jakub Kiwior Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Eberechi Eze FWL 90 0 0 4 4 0.17 0.06 0.07
Chris Richards DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.01
Jefferson Lerma MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.02 0.00 0.08
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Tyrick Mitchell DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Jean-Philippe Mateta FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Dean Henderson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeffrey Schlupp FWR 80 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.05 0.07
Nathaniel Clyne DMR 80 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.07
Will Hughes MC 72 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.02
David Ozoh Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matheus França Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Naouirou Ahamada Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James Tomkins Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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