Arsenal v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.20
Goals − xG
+0.09 – -1.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
63.4%
Draw
25.3%
Everton win
11.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWWLWWW last 10
scored 16
from 20.1 xG
conceded 6
from 9.3 xG
Everton are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWDDDWDLL last 10
scored 9
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–0.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.09–0.69 | 2-0 14% | 52% | 43% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 1.91 xGEverton 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
| 7' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | William Saliba |
| 8' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 10' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 14' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 16' |
 Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | James Garner |
| 17' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 30' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 34' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 44' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 44' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 48' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 51' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | William Saliba |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Riccardo Calafiori |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristhian Mosquera |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Max Dowman |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Max Dowman |
| 82' |
Arsenal |
Max Dowman | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.77 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Piero Hincapié |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 95' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Arsenal |
Max Dowman | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gabriel Martinelli |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Noni Madueke AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Kai Havertz FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Cristhian Mosquera Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Viktor Gyokeres Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| Max Dowman Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.47 |
| Piero Hincapié Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 0.84 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight McNeil AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.10 | 0.89 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Garner DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Jake O'Brien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Beto FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Harrison Armstrong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |