Arsenal v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
2.43 – 0.52
Goals − xG
-1.13 – -0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
59.6%
Draw
25.3%
Fulham win
15.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.0 xG
conceded 5
from 10.1 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.15–0.79 | 2-0 12% | 56% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 4.13 xGFulham 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 8' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.82 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 13' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 20' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 25' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ben White |
| 28' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 31' |
 Fulham |
Samuel Chukwueze | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Antonee Robinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.39 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | William Saliba |
| 44' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Calafiori |
| 46' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harrison Reed |
| 48' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 48' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Harrison Reed |
| 49' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 59' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | William Saliba |
| 62' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Chukwueze |
| 70' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Calvin Bassey |
| 80' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 84' |
Arsenal |
Max Dowman | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Leandro Trossard AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.81 | 0.97 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.03 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ben White DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.87 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 68 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2.02 | 0.08 | 1.28 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Bukayo Saka AMR | 50 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| Noni Madueke Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Martín Zubimendi Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Max Dowman Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Cristhian Mosquera Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Samuel Chukwueze AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Harrison Reed DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.09 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua King Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Muniz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonah Kusi-Asare Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |