Arsenal v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.36 – -0.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
63.3%
Draw
22.9%
Newcastle United win
13.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.08–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.19–0.93 | 2-0 11% | 60% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 0.64 xGNewcastle United 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 7' |
 Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 8' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Kai Havertz |
| 15' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | William Osula |
| 17' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 23' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 30' |
Newcastle United |
Joe Willock | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | William Osula |
| 37' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 48' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Piero Hincapié |
| 57' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 64' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 80' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 81' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel |
| 82' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 83' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 86' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 95' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.48 |
| Ben White DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Noni Madueke FWR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| Viktor Gyokeres Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Eberechi Eze FWL | 56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Kai Havertz FW | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Bukayo Saka Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Dan Burn DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Sandro Tonali DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.61 |
| Jacob Ramsey ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Lewis Miley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Joe Willock MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| Jacob Murphy MR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Osula FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |