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Arsenal v Sheffield United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 October 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

5–0
3.03 – 0.03 xG
Shots
13 – 2
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
9 – 0
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.01
Set-piece xG
1.44 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.96 – -0.03
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Eddie Nketiah 27' — goalEddie Nketiah 49' — goalEddie Nketiah 57' — goalFábio Vieira 87' — goalTakehiro Tomiyasu 95' — goal
Arsenal 3.04 xGSheffield United 0.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Declan Rice 5' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gustavo Hamer 14' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)James McAtee 20' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Eddie Nketiah 27' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Martinelli 40' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Oleksandr Zinchenko 41' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Emile Smith-Rowe 42' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Eddie Nketiah 49' — Goal (0.54 xG, From Corner)Eddie Nketiah 57' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ben White 61' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Takehiro Tomiyasu 75' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 87' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Eddie Nketiah 95' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Takehiro Tomiyasu 95' — Goal (0.12 xG, From Corner)Kai Havertz 99' — Missed Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)
Arsenal attacking right Sheffield United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Martinelli
14' Sheffield United Gustavo Hamer 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot James McAtee
20' Sheffield United James McAtee 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gustavo Hamer
27' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Goal Declan Rice
40' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Bukayo Saka
41' Arsenal Oleksandr Zinchenko 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
42' Arsenal Emile Smith-Rowe 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Martinelli
49' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.54 From Corner Right Foot Goal
57' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Emile Smith-Rowe
61' Arsenal Ben White 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gabriel Martinelli
75' Arsenal Takehiro Tomiyasu 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
87' Arsenal Fábio Vieira 0.76 Left Foot Goal
95' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kai Havertz
95' Arsenal Takehiro Tomiyasu 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Goal
99' Arsenal Kai Havertz 0.56 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Oleksandr Zinchenko

Players

Arsenal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Eddie Nketiah FW 90 3 0 4 0 1.24 0.00 0.73
Kai Havertz MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.56 0.09 0.78
Declan Rice MC 90 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.55 0.16
Oleksandr Zinchenko DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.56 0.85
Jakub Kiwior DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
William Saliba DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
David Raya GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emile Smith-Rowe MC 76 0 1 1 1 0.12 0.05 0.29
Bukayo Saka FWR 76 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08
Gabriel Martinelli FWL 69 0 0 1 3 0.08 0.23 0.36
Ben White DR 69 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.19
Takehiro Tomiyasu Sub 21 1 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.03
Leandro Trossard Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fábio Vieira Sub 14 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.00
Reiss Nelson Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.66
Mohamed Elneny Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sheffield United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Vinicius Souza MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oliver Norwood MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Luke Thomas DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jack Robinson DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Wes Foderingham GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Auston Trusty DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gustavo Hamer FW 86 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.03
James McAtee MR 74 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.03
Jayden Bogle DR 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anis Ben Slimane ML 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rhian Brewster FW 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ben Osborn Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cameron Archer Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
John Fleck Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
George Baldock Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ryan Oné Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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