Arsenal v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
29 – 8
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
20 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.28 – 0.54
Goals − xG
-0.37 – -0.30
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
85.7%
Draw
9.6%
Southampton win
4.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 3.22–0.68 | 3-0 11% | 75% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 3.37 xGSouthampton 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Southampton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 3' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 6' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 11' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 14' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Southampton |
Kyle Walker-Peters | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 30' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 35' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Southampton |
Joe Ayodele-Aribo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Dibling |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorginho |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Jorginho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 45' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raheem Sterling |
| 45' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 48' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Southampton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Taylor Harwood-Bellis |
| 54' |
Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mateus Fernandes |
| 57' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 61' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 66' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bukayo Saka |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 77' |
Southampton |
Tyler Dibling | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Flynn Downes |
| 78' |
Southampton |
Taylor Harwood-Bellis | 0.54 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Yukinari Sugawara |
| 79' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 82' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 87' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 91' |
Arsenal |
Takehiro Tomiyasu | 0.17 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Kai Havertz |
| 95' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 98' |
Southampton |
Flynn Downes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.15 | 0.17 | 0.96 |
| Bukayo Saka MR | 90 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0.47 | 1.77 | 1.49 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Thomas Partey DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Jorginho MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Gabriel Jesus FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| Raheem Sterling ML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Kiwior Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Tyler Dibling MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Flynn Downes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Jan Bednarek DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.08 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateus Fernandes ML | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 0.69 |
| Ryan Manning DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cameron Archer Sub | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ross Stewart FW | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Onuachu Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Armstrong Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charlie Taylor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |