Arsenal v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 5
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.38
Goals − xG
+1.81 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
61.0%
Draw
26.7%
Sunderland win
12.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–0.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.26–0.57 | 2-0 15% | 54% | 39% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 1.19 xGSunderland 0.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 7' |
 Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.35 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ballard |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kai Havertz |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 41' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | David Raya |
| 46' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 48' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 52' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kai Havertz |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 90' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nilson Angulo |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 96' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Declan Rice |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kai Havertz MC | 71 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Noni Madueke FWR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Gabriel Jesus FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Viktor Gyokeres Sub | 26 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| Eberechi Eze Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Piero Hincapié Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Nørgaard Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Diarra AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Le Fée DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Trai Hume AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Noah Sadiki DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Chemsdine Talbi AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nilson Angulo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |