Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 3
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 0
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.01
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.72 – +0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
65.2%
Draw
21.1%
Tottenham Hotspur win
13.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.03–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.25–0.91 | 2-0 11% | 61% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.28 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 3' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 8' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 17' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mikel Merino |
| 40' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Declan Rice |
| 45' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jurriën Timber |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 54' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | João Palhinha |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 71' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 75' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Eberechi Eze | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 79' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Richarlison |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Declan Rice DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.80 | 1.01 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bukayo Saka AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.89 |
| Mikel Merino FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 0.95 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Piero Hincapié DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Leandro Trossard AML | 81 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.95 |
| Noni Madueke Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Mosquera Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| João Palhinha MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djed Spence DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Odobert AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Xavi Simons Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Randal Kolo Muani Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Porro Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |