Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 15 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-0.27 – +0.22
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
71.2%
Draw
16.2%
Tottenham Hotspur win
12.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.59–1.01 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 2.27 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 12' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Dejan Kulusevski | 0.33 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Radu Dragusin |
| 24' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 39' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 43' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Martin Odegaard |
| 45' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Bergvall |
| 52' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 55' |
Arsenal |
Kai Havertz | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 56' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Arsenal |
Raheem Sterling | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 72' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 72' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Martinelli |
| 75' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Tierney |
| 84' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 86' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 93' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Dejan Kulusevski |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 1.31 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.26 | 0.93 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| Raheem Sterling FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.67 |
| Kieran Tierney Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejan Kulusevski FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| Archie Gray DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Radu Dragusin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Bergvall MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Son Heung-Min FWL | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yves Bissouma MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Maddison Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Brennan Johnson Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Richarlison Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.14 |