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Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
19 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.52
Goals − xG
-1.33 – -0.08
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Bukayo Saka 5' — goalMartin Odegaard 12' — goalMatheus Cunha 85' — goal
Arsenal 3.33 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Bukayo Saka 5' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Martin Odegaard 12' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 19' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Martinelli 24' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 24' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Declan Rice 26' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Matheus Cunha 30' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Toti 32' — Missed Shot (0.52 xG, Set Piece)Declan Rice 36' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Martinelli 36' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gabriel 37' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Jesus 37' — Missed Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Jesus 47' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Hee-Chan Hwang 49' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 50' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 52' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Declan Rice 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 74' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bukayo Saka 81' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Leandro Trossard 81' — Saved Shot (0.52 xG, Open Play)Hee-Chan Hwang 82' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Matheus Cunha 85' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Eddie Nketiah 87' — Shot On Post (0.41 xG, Open Play)Gabriel 89' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)
Arsenal attacking right Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal Takehiro Tomiyasu
12' Arsenal Martin Odegaard 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Goal Oleksandr Zinchenko
19' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Martin Odegaard
24' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Jesus
24' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
26' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot
30' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.33 Open Play Missed Shot Hugo Bueno
32' Wolverhampton Wanderers Toti 0.52 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Tommy Doyle
36' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Leandro Trossard
36' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Bukayo Saka
37' Arsenal Gabriel 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Bukayo Saka
37' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel
47' Arsenal Gabriel Jesus 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Martin Odegaard
49' Wolverhampton Wanderers Hee-Chan Hwang 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
50' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Martinelli
52' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
57' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Bukayo Saka
63' Arsenal Declan Rice 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Martin Odegaard
74' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Martin Odegaard
81' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
81' Arsenal Leandro Trossard 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Martin Odegaard
82' Wolverhampton Wanderers Hee-Chan Hwang 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matt Doherty
85' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matheus Cunha 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Nélson Semedo
87' Arsenal Eddie Nketiah 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Martin Odegaard
89' Arsenal Gabriel 0.10 From Corner Blocked Shot Bukayo Saka

Players

Arsenal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Leandro Trossard MC 90 0 0 5 1 1.26 0.05 1.41
Bukayo Saka FWR 90 1 0 3 4 0.42 0.25 1.29
Gabriel DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.15 0.63 1.35
Declan Rice MC 90 0 0 3 0 0.13 0.00 1.64
Martin Odegaard MC 90 1 0 1 6 0.11 1.63 2.20
William Saliba DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.61
Oleksandr Zinchenko DL 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.80
David Raya GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Takehiro Tomiyasu DR 86 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.35 0.62
Gabriel Martinelli FWL 84 0 0 2 1 0.17 0.03 1.00
Gabriel Jesus FW 74 0 0 2 1 0.70 0.09 1.25
Eddie Nketiah Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.41 0.00 0.41
Kai Havertz Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.92
Ben White Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Jorginho Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jakub Kiwior Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Toti DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.52 0.00 0.33
Matheus Cunha FW 90 1 0 3 0 0.45 0.00 0.45
Hee-Chan Hwang FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Craig Dawson DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Tommy Doyle MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.52 0.33
Boubacar Traore MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Nélson Semedo DMR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.46
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde MC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Hugo Bueno DML 69 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.33 0.33
Daniel Bentley Sub 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
José Sá GK 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matt Doherty Sub 21 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Pablo Sarabia Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Sasa Kalajdzic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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