Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 5
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.38 – +0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Arsenal win
79.8%
Draw
13.6%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
6.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.0 xG
conceded 5
from 10.1 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.62–0.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–0.52 | 2-0 16% | 50% | 36% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Arsenal 1.62 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Arsenal attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 16' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 26' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 32' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.24 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 36' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 37' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Møller Wolfe |
| 47' |
Arsenal |
Myles Lewis-Skelly | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Piero Hincapié |
| 61' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Myles Lewis-Skelly |
| 65' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 69' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Sam Johnstone | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 73' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 74' |
Arsenal |
Viktor Gyokeres | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 82' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 89' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mateus Mané |
| 93' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 96' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Trossard |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| Jurriën Timber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.86 |
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Piero Hincapié DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.66 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Eberechi Eze MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Ben White DR | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| Leandro Trossard Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Mikel Merino Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Gabriel Jesus Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Møller Wolfe DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ladislav Krejcí MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matt Doherty DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Arias Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Fernando López Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateus Mané Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |