Astana-M v Ekibastuz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 September 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627

KAZ-First League results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Astana-M

12:00 UTC

Ekibastuz

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 10 Sep, 11:32 · 192h before kick-off

Astana-M win

56.4%

model 56.9%

Draw

17.3%

model 18.0%

Ekibastuz win

26.3%

model 25.1%

561726

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,259 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.2%
1-1 7.1%
1-0 6.9%
3-1 6.8%
2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	70.6%	Under 2.5	29.4%
BTTS yes	66.6%	BTTS no	33.4%
Astana-M 1+	89.2%	Astana-M 2+	65.3%
Ekibastuz 1+	75.8%	Ekibastuz 2+	41.5%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

21/100

Data quality

20/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Astana-M over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 49%

68.3% fair odds 1.46

strong signal · 11563 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Ekibastuz (+2.5)

Asian handicap · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 13600 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Astana-M have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Ekibastuz have allowed 1.35.
At home Astana-M average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Astana-M have only 0 matches on record.
Ekibastuz have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Astana-M have an estimated 56.4% win probability, against 26.3% for Ekibastuz and 17.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.23 for Astana-M and 1.42 for Ekibastuz.

Why Astana-M

Astana-M have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Ekibastuz have allowed 1.35. At home Astana-M average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.3%.

Why Ekibastuz can win

Ekibastuz have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Astana-M have allowed 1.35. Away from home Ekibastuz average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Astana-M, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Ekibastuz, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Astana-M: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ekibastuz: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Astana-M are the model's most likely outcome at 56.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	571825	2.23–1.42	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	651620	2.71–1.47	2-1 8%	79%	71%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to win	64.5%	58.2%	47.7%	1.22×	1.72
Ekibastuz to win	19.9%	19.4%	37.6%	0.52×	5.15
Draw	15.6%	19.4%	15.2%	1.28×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M & both teams score	42.3%	39.0%	21.1%	1.85×	2.56
Astana-M & not both score	22.2%	21.8%	27.0%	0.81×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	14.9%	13.2%	12.7%	1.05×	7.55
Ekibastuz & both teams score	14.0%	13.2%	19.0%	0.70×	7.55
Ekibastuz & not both score	5.9%	8.4%	19.0%	0.44×	11.95
Draw & not both score	0.7%	4.9%	3.0%	1.66×	20.36

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M & over 1.5	59.5%	54.6%	38.8%	1.41×	1.83
Astana-M & over 2.5	53.9%	48.8%	35.0%	1.39×	2.05
Astana-M & over 3.5	40.6%	40.0%	24.5%	1.63×	2.50
Astana-M & under 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	23.6%	0.91×	4.63
Ekibastuz & over 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	31.2%	0.58×	5.57
Ekibastuz & over 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	26.2%	0.69×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	14.9%	12.9%	12.7%	1.02×	7.77
Astana-M & under 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	13.1%	0.98×	7.78
Ekibastuz & under 3.5	10.0%	12.9%	24.1%	0.53×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	9.6%	8.0%	5.1%	1.57×	12.56
Draw & over 3.5	9.6%	8.0%	5.1%	1.57×	12.56
Ekibastuz & over 3.5	9.9%	8.0%	13.9%	0.57×	12.56
Draw & under 2.5	6.0%	8.0%	10.5%	0.75×	12.57
Draw & under 3.5	6.0%	8.0%	10.5%	0.75×	12.57
Astana-M & under 1.5	4.9%	4.9%	9.3%	0.53×	20.52
Ekibastuz & under 2.5	4.7%	4.9%	11.8%	0.41×	20.52
Ekibastuz & under 1.5	3.0%	4.9%	6.8%	0.72×	20.53
Draw & under 1.5	0.7%	4.9%	3.0%	1.65×	20.54

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (1UP)	79.1%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Ekibastuz (1UP)	43.3%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (2UP)	64.5%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Ekibastuz (2UP)	19.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.65

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to win 2nd half	53.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
2nd half drawn	25.1%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Ekibastuz to win 2nd half	21.8%	23.1%	—	—	4.34

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Ekibastuz over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.7%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Ekibastuz under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.3%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Ekibastuz over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Astana-M under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.3%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Astana-M over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Astana-M under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (+0.5)	80.1%	82.6%	62.4%	1.32×	1.21
Ekibastuz (+2.5)	74.4%	73.7%	79.7%	0.92×	1.36
Astana-M (-0.5)	64.5%	63.0%	47.7%	1.32×	1.59
Ekibastuz (+1.5)	56.5%	56.9%	68.4%	0.83×	1.76
Astana-M (-1.5)	43.5%	43.1%	31.6%	1.36×	2.32
Ekibastuz (+0.5)	35.5%	37.0%	52.3%	0.71×	2.71
Astana-M (-2.5)	25.6%	26.3%	20.3%	1.30×	3.80
Ekibastuz (-0.5)	19.9%	17.4%	37.6%	0.46×	5.74

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to concede	93.3%	91.1%	78.5%	1.16×	1.10
Ekibastuz clean sheet	6.7%	8.9%	21.5%	0.41×	11.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to concede in 1st half	68.8%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Ekibastuz clean sheet in 1st half	31.2%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to concede in 2nd half	78.7%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Ekibastuz clean sheet in 2nd half	21.3%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz under 3.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	90.3%	1.02×	1.09
Ekibastuz under 2.5 goals	81.5%	81.2%	78.9%	1.03×	1.23
Ekibastuz over 0.5 goals	77.1%	76.1%	70.5%	1.08×	1.31
Ekibastuz under 1.5 goals	56.7%	59.0%	60.3%	0.98×	1.70
Ekibastuz over 1.5 goals	43.3%	41.0%	39.7%	1.03×	2.44
Ekibastuz under 0.5 goals	22.9%	23.9%	29.5%	0.81×	4.18
Ekibastuz over 2.5 goals	18.5%	18.8%	21.1%	0.89×	5.33
Ekibastuz over 3.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	9.7%	0.80×	12.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz under 1.5 in 1st half	88.2%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Ekibastuz under 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Ekibastuz over 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Ekibastuz over 1.5 in 1st half	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz scores more in 2nd half	40.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Ekibastuz scores equally in both	36.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Ekibastuz scores more in 1st half	23.1%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (away no bet)	80.5%	82.4%	75.8%	1.09×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.5%	17.6%	24.2%	0.73×	5.68

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz even goals	52.6%	52.8%	54.0%	0.98×	1.89
Ekibastuz odd goals	47.4%	47.2%	46.0%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	63.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Both halves over 1.5 goals	36.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	85.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves under 1.5 goals	14.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	78.5%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Astana-M to score 2+ in a row	65.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	41.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Astana-M to score 3+ in a row	34.8%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Ekibastuz to score 2+ in a row	28.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Ekibastuz to score 3+ in a row	7.6%	5.6%	—	—	17.72

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	15.3%	13.5%	12.2%	1.11×	7.39
2-1	8.3%	7.4%	5.5%	1.35×	13.54
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.54
1-1	5.3%	7.4%	8.0%	0.92×	13.54
2-0	5.6%	7.4%	4.2%	1.75×	13.54
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	3.0%	2.50×	13.54
3-0	5.1%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.54
3-2	5.5%	7.4%	1.3%	5.84×	13.54
4-1	5.1%	7.4%	3.0%	2.50×	13.54
0-0	0.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.58
0-1	3.0%	1.7%	6.8%	0.26×	57.56
0-2	1.7%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	57.57
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	57.58
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	3.0%	0.59×	57.58
1-0	4.9%	1.7%	9.3%	0.19×	57.55
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	8.9%	0.20×	57.56
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.57
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.58
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	57.56
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	57.57
3-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	57.57
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.57
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	5.5%	0.32×	57.56
4-2	3.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	57.56
4-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	57.57
4-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.12×	57.58

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (2nd half DNB)	70.8%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Ekibastuz (2nd half DNB)	29.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M leading at HT (DNB)	72.7%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Ekibastuz leading at HT (DNB)	27.3%	27.6%	—	—	3.63

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M or Ekibastuz (12)	84.4%	80.6%	84.8%	0.95×	1.24
Astana-M or draw (1X)	80.1%	80.6%	62.4%	1.29×	1.24
Ekibastuz or draw (X2)	35.5%	41.8%	52.3%	0.80×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M or draw at HT	81.2%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Astana-M or Ekibastuz at HT	68.9%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Ekibastuz or draw at HT	49.9%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M or draw (1UP)	80.1%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Ekibastuz or draw (1UP)	43.3%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M or draw in 2nd half	78.2%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Astana-M or Ekibastuz in 2nd half	74.9%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Ekibastuz or draw in 2nd half	47.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	49.4%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	50.6%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (DNB)	76.4%	74.3%	55.9%	1.33×	1.35
Ekibastuz (DNB)	23.6%	25.7%	44.1%	0.58×	3.89

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to score first	64.3%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Ekibastuz to score first	35.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
No goal scored	0.7%	4.2%	—	—	23.85

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.2%	62.8%	51.9%	1.21×	1.59
Not both teams to score	28.8%	37.2%	48.1%	0.77×	2.69

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	65.9%	57.0%	44.3%	1.29×	1.75
Not both score & under 2.5	16.0%	21.3%	27.0%	0.79×	4.69
Not both score & over 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	21.5%	0.57×	8.15
Both score & under 2.5	5.3%	8.4%	8.0%	1.04×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	67.4%	73.7%	86.1%	0.86×	1.36
Both teams to score 2+	32.6%	26.3%	13.9%	1.89×	3.80

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	54.1%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Both teams to score in 2nd half	45.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	37.7%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Both score 2nd half only	31.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	16.4%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
Both score in both halves	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	69.5%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Both teams to score by HT	30.5%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	75.0%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
A half without a goal	25.0%	21.0%	—	—	4.75

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	47.2%	46.9%	32.9%	1.43×	2.13
2-3 goals	31.2%	30.9%	39.7%	0.78×	3.24
7+ goals	13.0%	17.2%	10.1%	1.69×	5.83
0-1 goals	8.7%	7.7%	18.1%	0.42×	13.03

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz to score exactly 1	33.8%	33.6%	31.2%	1.08×	2.97
Ekibastuz to score exactly 2	24.9%	22.5%	19.0%	1.19×	4.44
Ekibastuz to score exactly 0	22.9%	22.5%	29.5%	0.76×	4.44
Ekibastuz to score 3+	18.5%	19.5%	21.1%	0.93×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to score 3+	50.8%	42.9%	32.9%	1.30×	2.33
Astana-M to score exactly 2	24.5%	23.4%	16.0%	1.46×	4.28
Astana-M to score exactly 1	18.0%	19.2%	30.4%	0.63×	5.21
Astana-M to score exactly 0	6.7%	10.5%	21.5%	0.49×	9.55

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M leading at HT	50.1%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Draw at HT	31.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Ekibastuz leading at HT	18.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M -1: 1	43.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Astana-M -1: 2	35.5%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Astana-M -1: X	20.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (0:1)	43.5%	42.6%	31.6%	1.35×	2.35
Ekibastuz (0:1)	35.5%	37.3%	52.3%	0.71×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.4%	16.5%	1.48×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (0:2)	56.5%	63.3%	68.4%	0.93×	1.58
Astana-M (0:2)	25.6%	24.2%	20.3%	1.19×	4.14
Draw (0:2)	18.0%	15.0%	11.8%	1.27×	6.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (0:3)	74.4%	77.5%	79.7%	0.97×	1.29
Astana-M (0:3)	12.9%	10.1%	11.0%	0.92×	9.94
Draw (0:3)	12.7%	10.1%	9.7%	1.04×	9.95

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (0:4)	87.1%	91.6%	89.0%	1.03×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.3%	4.8%	6.3%	0.77×	20.65
Astana-M (0:4)	5.6%	4.8%	5.1%	0.95×	20.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (1:0)	80.1%	81.5%	62.4%	1.31×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.8%	12.7%	17.3%	0.74×	7.85
Ekibastuz (1:0)	8.2%	7.0%	20.7%	0.34×	14.28

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M (2:0)	91.8%	93.7%	79.3%	1.18×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	5.3%	6.6%	9.7%	0.68×	15.25
Ekibastuz (2:0)	2.9%	2.4%	11.4%	0.21×	41.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.6%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
1st half highest scoring	28.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	18.1%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to concede	77.1%	76.2%	70.5%	1.08×	1.31
Astana-M clean sheet	22.9%	23.8%	29.5%	0.81×	4.20

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M clean sheet in 1st half	55.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Astana-M to concede in 1st half	44.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to concede in 2nd half	58.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Astana-M clean sheet in 2nd half	41.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M over 0.5 goals	93.3%	92.1%	78.5%	1.17×	1.09
Astana-M over 1.5 goals	75.3%	77.4%	48.5%	1.60×	1.29
Astana-M under 3.5 goals	71.3%	74.3%	83.1%	0.89×	1.35
Astana-M over 2.5 goals	50.8%	52.8%	32.9%	1.60×	1.90
Astana-M under 2.5 goals	49.2%	47.2%	67.1%	0.70×	2.12
Astana-M over 3.5 goals	28.7%	25.7%	16.9%	1.53×	3.89
Astana-M under 1.5 goals	24.7%	22.6%	51.5%	0.44×	4.42
Astana-M under 0.5 goals	6.7%	7.9%	21.5%	0.37×	12.69

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M over 0.5 in 1st half	68.8%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Astana-M under 1.5 in 1st half	67.5%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Astana-M over 1.5 in 1st half	32.5%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
Astana-M under 0.5 in 1st half	31.2%	31.8%	—	—	3.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M scores more in 2nd half	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Astana-M scores more in 1st half	28.7%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
Astana-M scores equally in both	25.3%	28.0%	—	—	3.58

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz (home no bet)	56.1%	56.1%	71.2%	0.79×	1.78
Draw (home no bet)	43.9%	43.9%	28.8%	1.52×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M even goals	50.2%	50.4%	48.5%	1.04×	1.98
Astana-M odd goals	49.8%	49.6%	51.5%	0.96×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	20.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-0	17.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
Any other HT score	13.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-1	10.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-1	6.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 2-2	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M at HT / Astana-M at FT	43.1%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Draw at HT / Astana-M at FT	17.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Ekibastuz at HT / Ekibastuz at FT	10.4%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Ekibastuz at FT	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	6.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Astana-M at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Ekibastuz at HT / Astana-M at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.75
Ekibastuz at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.76
Astana-M at HT / Ekibastuz at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to score last	64.2%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Ekibastuz to score last	35.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
No goal scored	0.7%	4.2%	—	—	23.85

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.3%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Astana-M to lead by 1 at any time	79.1%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	68.1%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Astana-M to lead by 2 at any time	53.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Ekibastuz to lead by 1 at any time	43.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	35.8%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Astana-M to lead by 3 at any time	30.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Ekibastuz to lead by 2 at any time	15.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Ekibastuz to lead by 3 at any time	5.0%	1.7%	—	—	59.55

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	78.3%	78.5%	72.2%	1.09×	1.27
1-5 goals	74.9%	72.3%	81.4%	0.89×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.0%	68.9%	66.2%	1.04×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.8%	68.9%	55.7%	1.24×	1.45
1-4 goals	58.6%	59.3%	75.1%	0.79×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.4%	53.4%	49.8%	1.07×	1.87
2-4 goals	50.7%	53.4%	59.9%	0.89×	1.87
4-6 goals	47.2%	48.5%	32.9%	1.47×	2.06
1-3 goals	39.1%	39.3%	54.9%	0.72×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.1%	39.3%	43.5%	0.90×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.8%	39.3%	27.0%	1.45×	2.55
2-3 goals	31.2%	35.3%	39.7%	0.89×	2.83
5-6 goals	27.7%	30.6%	12.7%	2.42×	3.26
1-2 goals	20.5%	24.8%	32.1%	0.77×	4.03
7+ goals	13.0%	15.1%	10.1%	1.49×	6.64

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M never behind	56.0%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Ekibastuz never behind	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.4%	50.9%	46.8%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	51.6%	49.1%	53.2%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.2%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.8%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half	50.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Even goals in 2nd half	49.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.3%	95.4%	97.0%	0.98×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	81.9%	1.13×	1.09
Over 2.5 goals	78.7%	77.2%	65.4%	1.18×	1.30
Under 5.5 goals	75.7%	77.2%	84.0%	0.92×	1.30
Over 3.5 goals	60.1%	61.9%	42.6%	1.45×	1.62
Under 4.5 goals	59.4%	58.5%	77.6%	0.75×	1.71
Over 4.5 goals	40.6%	41.5%	22.4%	1.86×	2.41
Under 3.5 goals	39.9%	38.1%	57.4%	0.66×	2.63
Over 5.5 goals	24.3%	22.8%	16.0%	1.42×	4.39
Under 2.5 goals	21.3%	22.8%	34.6%	0.66×	4.39
Under 1.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	18.1%	0.43×	12.81
Under 0.5 goals	0.7%	4.6%	3.0%	1.56×	21.76

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	90.0%	92.4%	78.3%	1.18×	1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	85.4%	86.6%	89.2%	0.97×	1.16
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.9%	72.3%	55.2%	1.31×	1.38
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	70.9%	72.2%	82.9%	0.87×	1.38
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	50.5%	52.3%	28.0%	1.87×	1.91
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	49.5%	47.7%	72.0%	0.66×	2.10
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	29.1%	27.8%	17.1%	1.62×	3.60
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	26.1%	27.7%	44.8%	0.62×	3.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	14.6%	13.4%	10.8%	1.25×	7.44
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.0%	7.6%	21.7%	0.35×	13.11

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	82.8%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	74.3%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half	52.2%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Under 1.5 in 1st half	47.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half	25.7%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half	17.2%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	91.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	56.3%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	43.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	8.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.09

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz not to score in both halves	73.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Astana-M to score in both halves	54.1%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Astana-M not to score in both halves	45.9%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Ekibastuz to score in both halves	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	71.2%	66.5%	51.9%	1.28×	1.51
Only Astana-M scores	22.2%	22.0%	27.0%	0.82×	4.54
Only Ekibastuz scores	5.9%	7.1%	19.0%	0.38×	14.03
Neither team scores	0.7%	4.6%	3.0%	1.56×	21.64

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	24.3%	22.4%	16.0%	1.40×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.6%	20.7%	0.85×	5.70
Exactly 3 goals	18.6%	17.6%	23.2%	0.76×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	16.3%	17.6%	6.8%	2.60×	5.70
Exactly 2 goals	12.5%	12.0%	16.9%	0.71×	8.30
Exactly 1 goals	8.0%	7.8%	15.6%	0.50×	12.83
Exactly 0 goals	0.7%	4.5%	3.0%	1.52×	22.24

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	30.6%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
3+ goals in 1st half	25.7%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goals in 1st half	17.2%	15.2%	—	—	6.56

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	69.5%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
1 goal in 2nd half	22.0%	23.0%	—	—	4.35
No goals in 2nd half	8.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz not to win both halves	96.0%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Astana-M not to win both halves	73.6%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Astana-M to win both halves	26.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Ekibastuz to win both halves	4.0%	2.8%	—	—	35.55

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M to win either half	76.8%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Ekibastuz to win neither half	63.4%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Ekibastuz to win either half	36.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Astana-M to win neither half	23.2%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Ekibastuz not to win to nil	94.1%	92.1%	81.0%	1.14×	1.09
Astana-M not to win to nil	77.8%	78.3%	73.0%	1.07×	1.28
Astana-M to win to nil	22.2%	21.7%	27.0%	0.80×	4.62
Ekibastuz to win to nil	5.9%	7.9%	19.0%	0.42×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Astana-M by 3+	25.6%	27.7%	20.3%	1.37×	3.61
Astana-M by 1	20.9%	24.2%	16.5%	1.47×	4.14
Astana-M by 2	18.0%	16.9%	11.8%	1.43×	5.92
Draw	15.6%	16.9%	15.2%	1.11×	5.92
Ekibastuz by 1	11.8%	11.7%	17.3%	0.68×	8.52
Ekibastuz by 2	5.3%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.75
Ekibastuz by 3+	2.9%	2.8%	11.4%	0.25×	35.54