Aston Villa v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.06 – -1.13
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
49.5%
Draw
21.7%
Bournemouth win
28.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 15 from 15.6 expected and conceded 16 from 17.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWLLDLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.6 xG
conceded 16
from 17.7 xG
Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDDLDDDLLW last 10
scored 12
from 18.2 xG
conceded 15
from 13.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.99–1.48 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 2.94 xGBournemouth 2.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moussa Diaby |
| 5' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 15' |
 Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Moussa Diaby | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 24' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Smith |
| 30' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 35' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 40' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leon Bailey |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pau Torres |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Moussa Diaby | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 61' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 64' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 67' |
Aston Villa |
Moussa Diaby | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 74' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 77' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 77' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moussa Diaby |
| 82' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Philip Billing |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Scott |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Milos Kerkez AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Neto GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lloyd Kelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.56 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adam Smith DR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| Max Aarons Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Antoine Semenyo Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Diaby AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.09 | 0.38 | 1.51 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 1.88 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0.52 | 1.51 | 2.11 |
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 1.75 |
| John McGinn DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.49 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.13 |
| Kaine Hayden Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Durán Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Carlos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |