Aston Villa v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 15
On target
4 – 8
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.07 – +0.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
39.9%
Draw
30.3%
Chelsea win
29.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Chelsea are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLDWLWW last 10
scored 12
from 15.3 xG
conceded 22
from 17.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.69 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 66% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.07 xGChelsea 3.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Aston Villa |
Douglas Luiz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leon Bailey |
| 5' |
 Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 14' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 15' |
Chelsea |
Wesley Fofana | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 23' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Martinez |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 28' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 28' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Wesley Fofana | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 33' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 34' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.90 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Malo Gusto |
| 47' |
Chelsea |
Jorrel Hato | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 48' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Enzo Fernández |
| 54' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | João Pedro |
| 63' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 79' |
Aston Villa |
Alysson Edward | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 89' |
Aston Villa |
Tammy Abraham | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Ross Barkley |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Douglas Luiz DMC | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Emiliano Buendía AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alysson Edward Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2.37 | 0.14 | 3.02 |
| Alejandro Garnacho FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0.55 | 1.11 | 2.23 |
| Cole Palmer FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 2.82 |
| Jorrel Hato DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.46 |
| Reece James MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.92 |
| Moisés Caicedo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.09 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.46 |
| Enzo Fernández MC | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.49 | 2.29 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 1.78 |
| Romeo Lavia Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Marc Cucurella Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrey Santos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |