Aston Villa v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Aston Villa

15:00 UTC

Crystal Palace

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,084h before kick-off

Aston Villa win

41.7%

model 40.9%

Draw

22.0%

model 22.9%

Crystal Palace win

36.3%

model 36.2%

422236

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.0%
2-1 8.5%
1-2 8.0%
2-2 6.8%
1-0 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.5%	Under 2.5	35.5%
BTTS yes	65.5%	BTTS no	34.5%
Aston Villa 1+	82.0%	Aston Villa 2+	51.1%
Crystal Palace 1+	79.9%	Crystal Palace 2+	47.7%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.61. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 56%

58.5% fair odds 1.71

moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Aston Villa carry the stronger rating, 1670 Elo against 1529.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Aston Villa average 1.27 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Aston Villa have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for Crystal Palace and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.72 for Aston Villa and 1.60 for Crystal Palace.

Why Aston Villa

Aston Villa carry the stronger rating, 1670 Elo against 1529. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Aston Villa average 1.27 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.72 to 1.60. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Crystal Palace can win

Away from home Crystal Palace average 1.63 xG a match.

Key players

Aston Villa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ollie Watkins (0.56), Nicolas Jackson (0.42), Johan Manzambi (0.32). Crystal Palace's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.45), Ismaila Sarr (0.39), Yeremi Pino (0.30).

Availability

1 of Aston Villa's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Aston Villa's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Crystal Palace's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Crystal Palace's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Aston Villa: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Crystal Palace: 43% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Aston Villa's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Aston Villa are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Aston Villa have scored 15 from 15.6 expected and conceded 16 from 17.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWWLLDLWDW last 10 scored 15 from 15.6 xG conceded 16 from 17.7 xG

Crystal Palace have scored 12 from 13.7 expected and conceded 24 from 23.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLWLDWL last 10 scored 12 from 13.7 xG conceded 24 from 23.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412336	1.72–1.61	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	542621	1.76–1.03	1-1 12%	53%	54%
dc-xg	392338	1.70–1.68	1-1 10%	66%	66%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win	44.6%	43.0%	43.0%	1.00×	2.33
Crystal Palace to win	32.2%	30.4%	32.3%	0.94×	3.29
Draw	23.2%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa & both teams score	25.2%	25.2%	22.9%	1.10×	3.97
Aston Villa & not both score	19.4%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Crystal Palace & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.57
Crystal Palace & not both score	13.5%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.53
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa & over 1.5	37.4%	34.9%	36.6%	0.95×	2.87
Aston Villa & over 2.5	31.1%	30.8%	30.3%	1.02×	3.25
Aston Villa & under 3.5	26.1%	26.1%	26.6%	0.98×	3.84
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	26.2%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.84
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	21.8%	21.6%	19.8%	1.09×	4.63
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	20.0%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Aston Villa & over 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.6%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.6%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Aston Villa & under 2.5	13.5%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	12.2%	12.8%	10.6%	1.22×	7.79
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	12.6%	1.02×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.7%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Aston Villa & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	7.1%	1.12×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (1UP)	62.3%	62.8%	62.0%	1.01×	1.59
Crystal Palace (1UP)	51.9%	52.6%	51.5%	1.02×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (2UP)	44.6%	47.3%	44.7%	1.06×	2.12
Crystal Palace (2UP)	32.2%	30.5%	34.5%	0.88×	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win 2nd half	39.1%	36.2%	36.2%	1.00×	2.77
2nd half drawn	32.7%	34.3%	31.1%	1.10×	2.91
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	28.2%	25.8%	32.8%	0.79×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.9%	84.3%	79.9%	1.06×	1.19
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.0%	52.7%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.0%	47.3%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.1%	15.7%	20.1%	0.78×	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	74.0%	75.2%	0.98×	1.35
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.1%	63.2%	58.3%	1.08×	1.58
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.9%	36.8%	41.7%	0.88×	2.72
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	26.0%	24.8%	1.05×	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (+2.5)	89.8%	88.5%	89.1%	0.99×	1.13
Crystal Palace (+1.5)	76.4%	78.5%	76.0%	1.03×	1.27
Aston Villa (+0.5)	67.8%	68.7%	67.7%	1.02×	1.46
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	55.4%	57.0%	57.0%	1.00×	1.75
Aston Villa (-0.5)	44.6%	43.0%	43.0%	1.00×	2.33
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	32.2%	31.3%	32.3%	0.97×	3.19
Aston Villa (-1.5)	23.6%	21.5%	24.0%	0.90×	4.65
Aston Villa (-2.5)	10.2%	11.5%	10.9%	1.06×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	82.4%	81.5%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Crystal Palace clean sheet	17.6%	18.5%	21.9%	0.84×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	52.2%	50.5%	51.2%	0.99×	1.98
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	47.8%	49.5%	48.8%	1.01×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede in 2nd half	63.1%	61.7%	58.3%	1.06×	1.62
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 2nd half	36.9%	38.3%	41.7%	0.92×	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	89.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	81.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	69.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	53.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	30.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	18.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	10.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	82.2%	81.5%	85.1%	0.96×	1.23
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	76.5%	76.3%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	57.6%	59.4%	60.6%	0.98×	1.68
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.6%	39.4%	1.03×	2.46
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	23.5%	23.8%	25.0%	0.95×	4.21
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	17.8%	18.5%	14.9%	1.24×	5.39
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	86.2%	89.2%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	52.3%	55.5%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	47.7%	44.5%	40.3%	1.11×	2.25
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	13.8%	10.8%	10.7%	1.00×	9.30

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace scores equally in both	37.4%	37.3%	37.5%	0.99×	2.68
Crystal Palace scores more in 2nd half	35.8%	37.3%	40.8%	0.91×	2.68
Crystal Palace scores more in 1st half	26.8%	26.3%	21.7%	1.21×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (away no bet)	65.7%	66.4%	63.5%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	34.3%	33.6%	36.5%	0.92×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	52.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Crystal Palace odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.4%	81.4%	80.0%	1.02×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.6%	18.6%	20.0%	0.93×	5.37

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.3%	67.3%	70.1%	0.96×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.7%	32.7%	29.9%	1.09×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.6%	60.2%	61.6%	0.98×	1.66
Aston Villa to score 2+ in a row	41.5%	38.7%	39.2%	0.99×	2.58
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	31.6%	29.2%	29.7%	0.98×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.9%	19.7%	26.1%	0.75×	5.08
Aston Villa to score 3+ in a row	15.7%	16.2%	16.4%	0.99×	6.17
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.6%	10.1%	0.56×	17.77

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa corners (+3.5)	93.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Aston Villa corners (+2.5)	89.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Aston Villa corners (+1.5)	83.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	67.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa corners (-1.5)	54.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	45.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Aston Villa corners (-2.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Aston Villa corners (-3.5)	33.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	16.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	10.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	6.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	25.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	65.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	33.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.4%	11.5%	11.4%	1.01×	8.72
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-0	7.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
2-2	6.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.51
2-0	6.3%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
3-1	5.2%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
Any other score	4.7%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.29
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.30
0-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.29
0-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-3	3.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	3.6%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-2	3.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	2.3%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.31
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (2nd half DNB)	58.1%	59.6%	52.5%	1.14×	1.68
Crystal Palace (2nd half DNB)	41.9%	40.4%	47.5%	0.85×	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa leading at HT (DNB)	54.4%	55.1%	59.8%	0.92×	1.82
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	45.6%	44.9%	40.2%	1.12×	2.23

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or Crystal Palace (12)	76.8%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Aston Villa or draw (1X)	67.8%	69.6%	67.7%	1.03×	1.44
Crystal Palace or draw (X2)	55.4%	57.0%	57.0%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw at HT	72.0%	75.1%	75.7%	0.99×	1.33
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	66.5%	66.6%	63.9%	1.04×	1.50
Aston Villa or Crystal Palace at HT	61.5%	61.6%	60.2%	1.02×	1.62

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw (1UP)	67.8%	76.3%	74.3%	1.03×	1.31
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	55.4%	62.9%	65.3%	0.96×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa or draw in 2nd half	71.8%	74.2%	67.2%	1.10×	1.35
Aston Villa or Crystal Palace in 2nd half	67.3%	65.7%	68.9%	0.95×	1.52
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	60.9%	63.8%	63.8%	1.00×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.6%	58.5%	57.1%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.4%	41.5%	42.9%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (DNB)	58.1%	58.1%	57.1%	1.02×	1.72
Crystal Palace (DNB)	41.9%	41.9%	42.9%	0.98×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score first	52.3%	53.3%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
Crystal Palace to score first	43.6%	41.7%	43.3%	0.96×	2.40
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	5.0%	0.87×	23.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.0%	56.6%	58.0%	0.98×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.0%	43.4%	42.0%	1.03×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.6%	47.3%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	27.9%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.0%	79.7%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	22.0%	20.3%	17.9%	1.14×	4.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.3%	67.2%	68.6%	0.98×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.7%	32.8%	31.4%	1.04×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.0%	53.0%	55.9%	0.95×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	26.1%	27.4%	24.7%	1.11×	3.65
Both score 1st half only	16.3%	15.0%	12.8%	1.17×	6.68
Both score in both halves	8.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.63

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.1%	81.1%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.9%	18.9%	19.6%	0.97×	5.29

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.6%	59.7%	61.6%	0.97×	1.67
A half without a goal	37.4%	40.3%	38.4%	1.05×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.3%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.0%	35.1%	32.8%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	17.4%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.94
7+ goals	4.3%	1.9%	2.8%	0.66×	54.06

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	23.5%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48
Crystal Palace to score 3+	17.8%	19.6%	14.9%	1.31×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score exactly 1	30.6%	32.5%	29.2%	1.11×	3.07
Aston Villa to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Aston Villa to score 3+	25.2%	26.5%	22.9%	1.16×	3.77
Aston Villa to score exactly 0	17.6%	18.8%	21.9%	0.85×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.5%	38.4%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Aston Villa leading at HT	33.5%	33.4%	36.1%	0.93×	3.00
Crystal Palace leading at HT	28.0%	24.9%	24.3%	1.03×	4.01

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa -1: 2	55.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Aston Villa -1: 1	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Aston Villa -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:1)	55.4%	55.8%	57.0%	0.98×	1.79
Aston Villa (0:1)	23.6%	24.2%	24.0%	1.01×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	20.9%	24.2%	19.1%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:2)	76.4%	79.3%	76.0%	1.04×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.4%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.09
Aston Villa (0:2)	10.2%	11.0%	10.9%	1.01×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:3)	89.8%	90.7%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.5%	5.8%	7.6%	0.76×	17.22
Aston Villa (0:3)	3.6%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.03

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:4)	96.4%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.5%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.82
Aston Villa (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.98

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (1:0)	67.8%	70.1%	67.7%	1.04×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	17.4%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85
Crystal Palace (1:0)	14.8%	12.7%	15.7%	0.81×	7.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (2:0)	85.2%	88.5%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.3%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.66
Crystal Palace (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.2%	48.8%	49.6%	0.98×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	29.8%	26.3%	25.8%	1.02×	3.81
Halves equal	23.0%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede	76.5%	76.1%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Aston Villa clean sheet	23.5%	23.9%	25.0%	0.96×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa clean sheet in 1st half	52.3%	55.5%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Aston Villa to concede in 1st half	47.7%	44.5%	40.3%	1.11×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede in 2nd half	55.0%	52.8%	57.8%	0.91×	1.89
Aston Villa clean sheet in 2nd half	45.0%	47.2%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners	86.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Aston Villa over 3.5 corners	74.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Aston Villa under 6.5 corners	65.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Aston Villa over 4.5 corners	60.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Aston Villa over 5.5 corners	46.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Aston Villa under 4.5 corners	39.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Aston Villa over 6.5 corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Aston Villa under 3.5 corners	25.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Aston Villa under 2.5 corners	14.0%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals	90.1%	92.2%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals	82.4%	82.2%	78.1%	1.05×	1.22
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals	74.8%	74.3%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals	51.8%	53.2%	48.9%	1.09×	1.88
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals	48.2%	46.8%	51.1%	0.92×	2.14
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals	25.2%	25.7%	22.9%	1.12×	3.89
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals	17.6%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.62
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals	9.9%	7.8%	8.5%	0.92×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 1st half	83.1%	83.8%	84.4%	0.99×	1.19
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	50.3%	51.2%	0.98×	1.99
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	49.7%	48.8%	1.02×	2.01
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 1st half	16.9%	16.2%	15.6%	1.04×	6.16

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa scores more in 2nd half	40.6%	42.0%	36.1%	1.17×	2.38
Aston Villa scores equally in both	33.2%	33.0%	37.7%	0.87×	3.03
Aston Villa scores more in 1st half	26.2%	27.8%	26.3%	1.06×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (home no bet)	58.1%	56.4%	56.6%	1.00×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	41.9%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa even goals	51.6%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Aston Villa odd goals	48.4%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.0%	24.5%	28.1%	0.87×	4.09
HT 1-0	18.5%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.38
HT 0-1	16.2%	18.6%	14.8%	1.26×	5.39
HT 1-1	12.0%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08
HT 2-0	6.8%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.49
Any other HT score	6.6%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.50
HT 0-2	5.2%	6.9%	4.4%	1.58×	14.52
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	41.99
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.03
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa at HT / Aston Villa at FT	26.2%	27.1%	26.4%	1.03×	3.68
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	19.1%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.97
Draw at HT / Aston Villa at FT	15.0%	16.7%	13.9%	1.20×	5.99
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.6%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.91
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	10.9%	12.6%	12.3%	1.03×	7.92
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	4.8%	1.25×	16.67
Aston Villa at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.69
Crystal Palace at HT / Aston Villa at FT	3.3%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.64
Aston Villa at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	2.3%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score last	52.3%	52.1%	50.1%	1.04×	1.92
Crystal Palace to score last	43.6%	40.1%	45.1%	0.89×	2.50
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	5.0%	0.87×	23.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.9%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Aston Villa to lead by 1 at any time	62.3%	61.4%	62.0%	0.99×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.9%	50.9%	50.6%	1.01×	1.97
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	51.9%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Aston Villa to lead by 2 at any time	31.5%	29.8%	29.9%	1.00×	3.36
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	21.8%	19.6%	21.0%	0.93×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.6%	19.6%	21.2%	0.93×	5.10
Aston Villa to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	10.5%	13.2%	0.79×	9.55
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.90

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa most corners	65.5%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Crystal Palace most corners	24.6%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.4%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.3%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.2%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.3%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.5%	59.1%	59.7%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.3%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.3%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.0%	39.2%	32.8%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.2%	35.2%	36.6%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.0%	30.2%	28.9%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.3%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	4.3%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.03

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa never behind	44.0%	48.6%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
Crystal Palace never behind	33.6%	36.3%	38.0%	0.96×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.6%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.4%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.6%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.7%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.6%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.4%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.6%	61.7%	58.5%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.7%	61.7%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.3%	38.3%	35.5%	1.08×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.4%	38.3%	41.5%	0.92×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.6%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.4%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.3%	12.4%	6.7%	1.85×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.4%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.4%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.0%	75.9%	76.2%	1.00×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.7%	72.4%	78.9%	0.92×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.6%	51.9%	46.1%	1.13×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.4%	48.1%	53.9%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.3%	27.6%	21.1%	1.31×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.0%	24.1%	23.8%	1.01×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.6%	13.3%	7.5%	1.78×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.6%	2.8%	2.9%	0.96×	35.52

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.7%	85.9%	87.2%	0.98×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.0%	78.0%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.7%	63.8%	64.3%	0.99×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.3%	36.2%	35.7%	1.01×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.0%	22.0%	28.1%	0.78×	4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.3%	14.1%	12.8%	1.11×	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	83.2%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.2%	77.4%	75.7%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	53.2%	54.4%	0.98×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	46.8%	45.6%	1.03×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.8%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.43
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	16.8%	15.3%	1.10×	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	73.8%	74.0%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Aston Villa not to score in both halves	67.0%	69.8%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Aston Villa to score in both halves	33.0%	30.2%	31.4%	0.96×	3.32
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	26.2%	26.0%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.0%	60.3%	58.0%	1.04×	1.66
Only Aston Villa scores	19.4%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Only Crystal Palace scores	13.5%	11.0%	17.1%	0.65×	9.06
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.67

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.0%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.2%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	11.3%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.3%	12.1%	6.7%	1.81×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.7%	35.9%	36.2%	0.99×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.0%	21.6%	28.1%	0.77×	4.64
2 goals in 1st half	24.0%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	16.3%	15.6%	12.8%	1.22×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.6%	51.5%	54.4%	0.95×	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.8%	29.4%	30.4%	0.96×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	16.6%	16.4%	15.3%	1.08×	6.09

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	92.1%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Aston Villa not to win both halves	86.9%	87.9%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Aston Villa to win both halves	13.1%	12.1%	13.6%	0.89×	8.23
Crystal Palace to win both halves	7.9%	5.9%	8.7%	0.68×	16.95

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to win either half	59.5%	59.1%	58.7%	1.01×	1.69
Crystal Palace to win neither half	51.7%	54.3%	51.7%	1.05×	1.84
Crystal Palace to win either half	48.3%	45.7%	48.4%	0.95×	2.19
Aston Villa to win neither half	40.5%	40.9%	41.3%	0.99×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	86.5%	88.1%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Aston Villa not to win to nil	80.6%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Aston Villa to win to nil	19.4%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91
Crystal Palace to win to nil	13.5%	11.9%	17.1%	0.70×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.2%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Aston Villa by 1	20.9%	24.1%	19.1%	1.26×	4.15
Crystal Palace by 1	17.4%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Aston Villa by 2	13.4%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Aston Villa by 3+	10.2%	11.7%	10.9%	1.08×	8.51
Crystal Palace by 2	9.3%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.90
Crystal Palace by 3+	5.4%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.92