Aston Villa v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.91 – +0.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
52.8%
Draw
28.5%
Everton win
18.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.58–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.14 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 0.91 xGEverton 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Everton |
Merlin Röhl | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Thierno Barry |
| 4' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 10' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 18' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 21' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 26' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 30' |
Aston Villa |
Evann Guessand | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 31' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 40' |
Aston Villa |
Evann Guessand | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Youri Tielemans |
| 43' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 52' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harrison Armstrong |
| 58' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Evann Guessand |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 71' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Aston Villa |
George Hemmings | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 80' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Evann Guessand | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pau Torres |
| 93' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Merlin Röhl DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Dwight McNeil AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jake O'Brien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nathan Patterson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Harrison Armstrong AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.58 |
| Beto Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.56 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.48 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.31 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| Lamare Bogarde DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| John McGinn AMR | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| George Hemmings Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |