Aston Villa v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 14
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.27
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
54.2%
Draw
24.7%
Leeds United win
21.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 15 from 15.6 expected and conceded 16 from 17.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWLLDLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.6 xG
conceded 16
from 17.7 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.95–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.36 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.25 xGLeeds United 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 13' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 19' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 20' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ethan Ampadu |
| 29' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 30' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 32' |
Leeds United |
Ilia Gruev | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 40' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 42' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 43' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.52 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrone Mings |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 56' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ross Barkley |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrone Mings |
| 69' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 73' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 74' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 74' |
Leeds United |
Ilia Gruev | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 79' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 87' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 87' |
Aston Villa |
Tammy Abraham | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.54 | 0.28 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Douglas Luiz DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.63 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| James Justin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Anton Stach MR | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.76 |
| Brenden Aaronson ML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jaka Bijol Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |