Aston Villa v Leicester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 4
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.35 – -0.03
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
71.6%
Draw
16.1%
Leicester City win
12.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Leicester City are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLDLLWDWL last 10
scored 8
from 8.8 xG
conceded 18
from 23.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.59–1.00 | 2-0 9% | 69% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 2.35 xGLeicester City 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Leicester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 33' |
 Leicester City |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 48' |
Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 50' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Leicester City |
Jamie Vardy | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Ayew |
| 62' |
Leicester City |
Stephy Mavididi | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 75' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ian Maatsen |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ollie Watkins |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.13 | 0.96 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Youri Tielemans AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ross Barkley DMC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1.18 |
| John McGinn AML | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
Leicester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephy Mavididi AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Boubakary Soumare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luke Thomas DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| James Justin DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jakub Stolarczyk GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jordan Ayew AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Conor Coady DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jannik Vestergaard DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Wout Faes Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Okoli Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patson Daka Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bobby Reid Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |