Aston Villa v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 15 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 16
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.33 – 0.89
Goals − xG
+1.06 – +0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
32.7%
Draw
28.5%
Liverpool win
38.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLDLWDWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.5 xG
conceded 15
from 18.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDDDWDWLWW last 10
scored 14
from 16.4 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.54 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 2.94 xGLiverpool 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 7' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 12' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 19' |
 Liverpool |
Joseph Gomez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 26' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
| 30' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Digne |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Joseph Gomez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.19 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 55' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Rogers |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 64' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 64' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Matthew Cash |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.73 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Pau Torres | 0.50 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 88' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 90' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 91' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 92' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 94' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2.16 | 0.04 | 1.47 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| John McGinn AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.91 | 1.40 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.56 | 1.01 |
| Victor Lindelöf DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Douglas Luiz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Rio Ngumoha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.61 |
| Curtis Jones AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.01 | 0.80 | 0.15 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Cody Gakpo FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Joseph Gomez DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Florian Wirtz Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Salah Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |