Aston Villa v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.89 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.08 – -0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
46.2%
Draw
25.3%
Manchester United win
28.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLDLWDWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.5 xG
conceded 15
from 18.3 xG
Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLWDLDDDL last 10
scored 16
from 20.0 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.55 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 2.08 xGManchester United 1.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 7' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.80 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ian Maatsen |
| 7' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 41' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mason Mount |
| 44' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | John McGinn |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrick Dorgu |
| 50' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | John McGinn |
| 52' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Manchester United |
Lisandro Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 58' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 58' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 63' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 64' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 66' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 84' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 84' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lisandro Martínez |
| 89' |
Manchester United |
Shea Lacey | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Youri Tielemans AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| John McGinn AMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.06 | 0.75 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.82 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.07 | 0.85 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.56 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| Diogo Dalot DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ayden Heaven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| Lisandro Martínez Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Fletcher Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shea Lacey Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |