Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 19
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 10
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.63 – +0.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
39.6%
Draw
25.9%
Nottingham Forest win
34.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.58–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.37 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 2.63 xGNottingham Forest 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 7' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrés García |
| 8' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Axel Disasi |
| 12' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Youri Tielemans |
| 14' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ian Maatsen |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 20' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 22' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Yates |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Aston Villa |
Axel Disasi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Neco Williams |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Murillo |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jota Silva |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Neco Williams |
| 58' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neco Williams |
| 59' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Martinez |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 67' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 71' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 76' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ramón Sosa |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 80' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 87' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Neco Williams |
| 91' |
Aston Villa |
Marcus Rashford | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 93' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Anderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Neco Williams ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| Ryan Yates MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Morato DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicolás Domínguez MR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Anthony Elanga FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Ramón Sosa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Willy Boly Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.16 | 0.75 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.63 | 1.59 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 1.46 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Marco Asensio AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Donyell Malen AMR | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.48 |
| Boubacar Kamara Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| John McGinn Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |