Aston Villa v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
7 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.62 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.06 – +1.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
44.0%
Draw
31.9%
Sunderland win
24.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLDLWDWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.5 xG
conceded 15
from 18.3 xG
Sunderland are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWDLLLLD last 10
scored 11
from 15.7 xG
conceded 16
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.01 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 3.94 xGSunderland 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | John McGinn |
| 3' |
 Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 4' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Reinildo |
| 8' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Noah Sadiki |
| 14' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | John McGinn |
| 14' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 33' |
Aston Villa |
Amadou Onana | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | John McGinn |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ian Maatsen |
| 41' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 64' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 67' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Habib Diarra |
| 75' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 81' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 81' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Enzo Le Fée |
| 89' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 92' |
Aston Villa |
Tammy Abraham | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Digne |
| 92' |
Sunderland |
Habib Diarra | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 95' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 2.29 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 1.87 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.86 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.72 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 82 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.87 | 0.82 | 2.71 |
| John McGinn AMR | 82 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.17 | 2.31 |
| Ross Barkley AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.85 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Diarra AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| Noah Sadiki DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.73 |
| Enzo Le Fée AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.98 | 1.07 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luke O'Nien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chris Rigg AMR | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo DL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Trai Hume Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Dan Ballard Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chemsdine Talbi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |