Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 10
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
2 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.53
Goals − xG
+0.39 – +0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
55.9%
Draw
25.6%
Tottenham Hotspur win
18.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.13 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 0.61 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 24' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mathys Tel |
| 35' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 54' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 60' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 63' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 70' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 88' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 95' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Goal | Matthew Cash |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lamare Bogarde DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jadon Sancho AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ross Barkley AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Tammy Abraham FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ollie Watkins Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.10 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mathys Tel AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.79 | 0.41 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Conor Gallagher AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Randal Kolo Muani AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Djed Spence Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yves Bissouma Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |