Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 3
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+0.31 – -0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
43.9%
Draw
24.3%
Tottenham Hotspur win
31.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–1.39 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.69 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 6' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 14' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 18' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 26' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo |
| 28' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Asensio |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 37' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 58' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Sergio Reguilón | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pau Torres |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Morgan Rogers |
| 74' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Asensio |
| 94' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.11 | 0.64 |
| Marco Asensio AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| John McGinn AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.55 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.77 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.68 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.67 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 87 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.13 | 0.63 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathys Tel FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djed Spence DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Davies DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Archie Gray DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Wilson Odobert AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.05 | 0.46 |
| Mikey Moore AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Reguilón DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Son Heung-Min AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Pape Sarr DMC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Yves Bissouma Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominic Solanke Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Richarlison Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |