Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.61 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.15 – -0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Aston Villa win
66.7%
Draw
20.3%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
13.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.02–0.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–0.97 | 1-0 12% | 50% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Aston Villa 1.16 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Aston Villa attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Aston Villa |
Pau Torres | 0.38 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jhon Arias | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Møller Wolfe |
| 18' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 19' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 20' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 22' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 37' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 40' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Toti |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jhon Arias | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | André |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 56' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo |
| 66' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | John McGinn |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | John McGinn |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ollie Watkins |
| 72' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | André |
| 73' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 96' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jackson Tchatchoua |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| John McGinn AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| Emiliano Buendía AML | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Ollie Watkins Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Amadou Onana Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jhon Arias FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| David Møller Wolfe DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Tawanda Chirewa Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateus Mané Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hugo Bueno Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |