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Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
11 – 13
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+0.72 – -1.66
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Moussa Diaby 35' — goalEzri Konsa Ngoyo 64' — goal
Aston Villa 1.28 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nélson Semedo 3' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Tommy Doyle 4' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Pablo Sarabia 9' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rayan Ait Nouri 14' — Saved Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Max Kilman 15' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Pablo Sarabia 21' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ollie Watkins 27' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Pau Torres 32' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Mario Lemina 32' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Moussa Diaby 35' — Goal (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Ezri Konsa Ngoyo 45' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Diego Carlos 46' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Set Piece)Leon Bailey 47' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pablo Sarabia 51' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Direct Freekick)Mario Lemina 55' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Leon Chiwome 61' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ezri Konsa Ngoyo 64' — Goal (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Zaniolo 65' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Zaniolo 66' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Jhon Durán 73' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Matt Doherty 86' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Zaniolo 91' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Mario Lemina 96' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Nathan Fraser 98' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Aston Villa attacking right Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Wolverhampton Wanderers Nélson Semedo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pablo Sarabia
4' Wolverhampton Wanderers Tommy Doyle 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
9' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nélson Semedo
14' Wolverhampton Wanderers Rayan Ait Nouri 0.54 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
15' Wolverhampton Wanderers Max Kilman 0.01 From Corner — Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
21' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Tommy Doyle
27' Aston Villa Ollie Watkins 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Youri Tielemans
32' Aston Villa Pau Torres 0.08 From Corner — Saved Shot Leon Bailey
32' Wolverhampton Wanderers Mario Lemina 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pablo Sarabia
35' Aston Villa Moussa Diaby 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Goal —
45' Aston Villa Ezri Konsa Ngoyo 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Diego Carlos
46' Aston Villa Diego Carlos 0.36 Set Piece — Missed Shot Leon Bailey
47' Aston Villa Leon Bailey 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Youri Tielemans
51' Wolverhampton Wanderers Pablo Sarabia 0.15 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot —
55' Wolverhampton Wanderers Mario Lemina 0.35 Open Play — Saved Shot Pablo Sarabia
61' Wolverhampton Wanderers Leon Chiwome 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mario Lemina
64' Aston Villa Ezri Konsa Ngoyo 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Goal Moussa Diaby
65' Aston Villa Nicolo Zaniolo 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Moussa Diaby
66' Aston Villa Nicolo Zaniolo 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Douglas Luiz
73' Aston Villa Jhon Durán 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Digne
86' Wolverhampton Wanderers Matt Doherty 0.29 Open Play — Missed Shot Hugo Bueno
91' Aston Villa Nicolo Zaniolo 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
96' Wolverhampton Wanderers Mario Lemina 0.08 From Corner — Missed Shot Pablo Sarabia
98' Wolverhampton Wanderers Nathan Fraser 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matt Doherty

Players

Aston Villa

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Diego Carlos DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.36 0.04 0.04
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DR 90 1 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Pau Torres DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.36
Leon Bailey MR 90 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.44 0.06
Moussa Diaby FW 90 1 1 1 2 0.04 0.20 0.52
Emiliano Martinez GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Youri Tielemans MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.38 0.42
Douglas Luiz MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.42
Álex Moreno DL 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Morgan Rogers ML 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ollie Watkins FW 48 0 0 1 0 0.32 0.00 0.32
Jhon Durán Sub 42 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.37
Nicolo Zaniolo Sub 25 0 0 3 0 0.24 0.00 0.31
Lucas Digne Sub 25 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Tim Iroegbunam Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kaine Hayden Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mario Lemina AMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.44 0.05 0.76
Pablo Sarabia AMC 90 0 0 3 5 0.21 0.51 0.77
Max Kilman DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.32
Santiago Bueno DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
José Sá GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Toti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Nélson Semedo DMR 86 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.03 0.09
Leon Chiwome FW 86 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
João Gomes MC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Tommy Doyle MC 73 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.08
Rayan Ait Nouri DML 66 0 0 1 0 0.54 0.00 0.54
Hugo Bueno Sub 24 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.29 0.29
Tawanda Chirewa Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matt Doherty Sub 4 0 0 1 1 0.29 0.05 0.34
Nathan Fraser Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Boubacar Traore Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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