Atalanta v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 12
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.29 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.31
Goals − xG
+0.84 – -0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
41.0%
Draw
29.3%
Bologna win
29.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.24 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 1.16 xGBologna 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atalanta |
Mateo Retegui | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Raoul Bellanova |
| 20' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mateo Retegui |
| 25' |
 Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Bologna |
Lorenzo De Silvestri | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 28' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mateo Retegui |
| 31' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Retegui |
| 34' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 35' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 57' |
Bologna |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 58' |
Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 59' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 78' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Bologna |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ndoye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Nicolò Casale Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Martin Erlic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Pasalic AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Davide Zappacosta DML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| Ademola Lookman AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Retegui FW | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.61 | 1.16 |
| Rafael Toloi Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Ruggeri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |