Atalanta v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 31 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 16
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
3 – 10
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.82 – -1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
52.1%
Draw
25.3%
Bologna win
22.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.55–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–1.14 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 0.18 xGBologna 1.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emil Holm |
| 7' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Torbjørn Heggem |
| 14' |
Bologna |
Emil Holm | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tommaso Pobega |
| 17' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rahim Alhassane |
| 27' |
 Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 30' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 35' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Scamacca |
| 41' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 44' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rahim Alhassane |
| 49' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 49' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 51' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Rahim Alhassane |
| 56' |
Bologna |
Lewis Ferguson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Torbjørn Heggem |
| 85' |
Bologna |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 85' |
Bologna |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 87' |
Bologna |
Mikel Amondarain | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 88' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 90' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 95' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicola Zalewski |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.62 | 0.89 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.49 |
| Eivind Helland DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Rahim Alhassane DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Emil Holm DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Amondarain Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nikola Moro Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Sead Kolasinac DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Éderson MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Giacomo Raspadori FWL | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Charles De Ketelaere FWR | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Nicola Zalewski Sub | 34 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |