Atalanta v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 9 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
29 – 12
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
21 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-1.13 – +0.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
61.3%
Draw
22.2%
Cremonese win
16.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLLWL last 10
scored 14
from 12.8 xG
conceded 15
from 20.5 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.58–0.92 | 2-0 10% | 68% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 3.13 xGCremonese 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 3' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 5' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 8' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 8' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 8' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 19' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Nicola Zalewski |
| 20' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 24' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mario Pasalic |
| 26' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 35' |
 Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Bonazzoli |
| 37' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 49' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 56' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 56' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 56' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Thorsby |
| 57' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 59' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 61' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Cremonese |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Martín Payero |
| 65' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 70' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 73' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Odilon Kossounou |
| 74' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 75' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Éderson |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martín Payero |
| 78' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 84' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 84' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 85' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 88' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 90' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 90' |
Atalanta |
Odilon Kossounou | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sebastiano Luperto |
Players
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.02 | 0.95 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.10 | 0.94 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1.39 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.08 | 0.97 | 2.10 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Giacomo Raspadori AMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.44 | 1.02 |
| Lazar Samardzic AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 1.72 |
| Nicola Zalewski DML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.67 | 1.01 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Odilon Kossounou Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1.04 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.69 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Thorsby MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.01 | 0.59 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano Sub | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Federico Ceccherini DC | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |