Atalanta v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 15
On target
0 – 4
Shots in box
2 – 11
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-1.17 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
28.9%
Draw
27.9%
Internazionale win
43.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.81 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 1.17 xGInternazionale 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 8' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 16' |
 Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 21' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 24' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 29' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 31' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Atalanta |
Sead Kolasinac | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 32' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Scamacca |
| 47' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 49' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.64 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 55' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 64' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 68' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 80' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 0.92 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.85 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.08 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nicola Zalewski DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Mario Pasalic AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |