Atalanta v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 7
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.26 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.89 – -0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
39.4%
Draw
26.8%
Juventus win
33.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWDDWLDWW last 10
scored 12
from 19.4 xG
conceded 5
from 7.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.39–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.75 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 1.89 xGJuventus 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 6' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Éderson |
| 8' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Nicola Zalewski |
| 18' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 21' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 25' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 26' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
 Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 31' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 44' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 47' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 47' |
Juventus |
Jeremie Boga | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 58' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Éderson |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 67' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emil Holm |
| 68' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 70' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 70' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 79' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Honest Ahanor |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 93' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremie Boga FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.96 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Emil Holm DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.66 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Federico Gatti Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filip Kostic Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Gianluca Scamacca Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Honest Ahanor Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |