Atalanta v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 12
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.94 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+1.32 – +0.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
71.3%
Draw
19.4%
Lecce win
9.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWLWWWLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 12
from 21.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.22–0.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.53–0.72 | 2-0 12% | 63% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 2.68 xGLecce 0.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 7' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Lecce |
Alex Sala | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 13' |
 Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 14' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 23' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Lecce |
Riccardo Sottil | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 27' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 31' |
Lecce |
Tete Morente | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 36' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nicola Zalewski |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 44' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikola Krstovic |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.39 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 55' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 57' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 69' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikola Krstovic |
| 71' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Danilo Veiga |
| 85' |
Atalanta |
Raoul Bellanova | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 87' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 89' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 91' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tete Morente |
| 92' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tete Morente FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Ylber Ramadani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Owen Kouassi DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alex Sala MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Riccardo Sottil FWL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Danilo Veiga Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Tiago Gabriel Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.16 | 1.21 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Odilon Kossounou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Nicola Zalewski DML | 86 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.83 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 76 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.45 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |