Atalanta v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Atalanta

14:00 UTC

Napoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,371h before kick-off

Atalanta win

38.3%

model 36.8%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.3%

Napoli win

38.5%

model 38.9%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.3%
0-1 7.5%
1-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.9%	Under 2.5	42.1%
BTTS yes	60.5%	BTTS no	39.5%
Atalanta 1+	77.3%	Atalanta 2+	43.6%
Napoli 1+	78.3%	Napoli 2+	45.1%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.53. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Over 1.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 73%

81.1% fair odds 1.23

moderate signal · 1833 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 91%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1660 Elo against 1598.
Away from home Napoli average 1.92 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Atalanta and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.48 for Atalanta and 1.53 for Napoli.

Why Atalanta

At home Atalanta average 1.27 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Napoli were missing 1.49 expected goal involvements a match against 0.75.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.48 to 1.53. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1660 Elo against 1598. Away from home Napoli average 1.92 xG a match.

Key players

Atalanta's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Nikola Krstovic (0.41), Charles De Ketelaere (0.40), Jonathan Rowe (0.33). Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35).

Availability

2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atalanta: 45% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 56% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Atalanta's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLDWWLLLWL last 10 scored 14 from 12.8 xG conceded 15 from 20.5 xG

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372439	1.48–1.53	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382438	1.50–1.49	1-1 11%	58%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to win	37.8%	36.4%	40.1%	0.91×	2.75
Napoli to win	36.3%	36.3%	33.6%	1.08×	2.75
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta & not both score	19.7%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Napoli & not both score	18.8%	18.0%	20.5%	0.88×	5.56
Atalanta & both teams score	18.1%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Napoli & both teams score	17.4%	18.0%	13.2%	1.36×	5.57
Draw & not both score	6.8%	8.3%	7.9%	1.05×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta & over 1.5	28.6%	26.1%	30.0%	0.87×	3.84
Napoli & over 1.5	27.3%	26.1%	24.6%	1.06×	3.84
Atalanta & under 3.5	26.8%	26.1%	29.5%	0.88×	3.84
Napoli & under 3.5	25.8%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Atalanta & over 2.5	22.3%	21.6%	23.4%	0.92×	4.63
Napoli & over 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	18.1%	1.19×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Atalanta & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Napoli & under 2.5	15.0%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Atalanta & over 3.5	11.1%	12.8%	10.7%	1.20×	7.79
Napoli & over 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	7.4%	1.72×	7.79
Atalanta & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Napoli & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (1UP)	54.5%	52.7%	55.3%	0.95×	1.90
Napoli (1UP)	53.2%	52.6%	50.4%	1.04×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (2UP)	37.8%	37.4%	41.9%	0.89×	2.67
Napoli (2UP)	36.3%	37.3%	36.1%	1.03×	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.3%	42.0%	35.1%	1.20×	2.38
Atalanta to win 2nd half	31.4%	34.3%	34.9%	0.98×	2.92
Napoli to win 2nd half	27.3%	25.9%	30.1%	0.86×	3.87

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.4%	87.1%	85.0%	1.02×	1.15
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.5%	49.9%	1.09×	1.84
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.5%	50.1%	0.91×	2.20
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.6%	12.9%	15.0%	0.86×	7.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	88.2%	81.4%	1.08×	1.13
Atalanta under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	55.1%	46.2%	1.19×	1.82
Atalanta over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	44.9%	53.8%	0.84×	2.23
Atalanta over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	11.8%	18.6%	0.63×	8.50

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	93.8%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Napoli (+1.5)	82.7%	82.5%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Atalanta (+0.5)	63.7%	62.9%	66.4%	0.95×	1.59
Napoli (+0.5)	62.2%	62.9%	59.9%	1.05×	1.59
Atalanta (-0.5)	37.8%	37.1%	40.1%	0.92×	2.70
Napoli (-0.5)	36.3%	37.1%	33.6%	1.10×	2.70
Atalanta (-1.5)	17.3%	17.5%	17.5%	1.00×	5.73
Atalanta (-2.5)	6.2%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	74.4%	76.8%	71.7%	1.07×	1.30
Napoli clean sheet	25.6%	23.2%	28.3%	0.82×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede in 1st half	51.0%	50.6%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	49.0%	49.4%	57.9%	0.85×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	52.3%	54.9%	46.2%	1.19×	1.82
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	47.7%	45.1%	53.8%	0.84×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	80.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Napoli over 2.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Napoli under 5.5 corners	70.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Napoli over 3.5 corners	57.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Napoli under 4.5 corners	57.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Napoli under 3.5 corners	42.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Napoli over 4.5 corners	42.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Napoli over 5.5 corners	29.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Napoli under 2.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Napoli over 6.5 corners	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	95.4%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Napoli under 2.5 goals	85.1%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Napoli over 0.5 goals	73.5%	71.9%	69.6%	1.03×	1.39
Napoli under 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.2%	64.9%	0.97×	1.58
Napoli over 1.5 goals	38.3%	36.8%	35.1%	1.05×	2.72
Napoli under 0.5 goals	26.5%	28.1%	30.4%	0.93×	3.56
Napoli over 2.5 goals	14.9%	12.2%	11.9%	1.03×	8.19
Napoli over 3.5 goals	4.6%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	82.8%	83.2%	89.9%	0.93×	1.20
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	52.6%	55.7%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	47.4%	44.3%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	17.2%	16.8%	10.1%	1.67×	5.95

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores equally in both	39.3%	37.4%	43.3%	0.86×	2.67
Napoli scores more in 1st half	35.4%	37.3%	23.9%	1.56×	2.68
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	25.3%	26.1%	32.9%	0.79×	3.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (away no bet)	59.4%	57.4%	60.3%	0.95×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.6%	42.6%	39.7%	1.07×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	53.5%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Napoli odd goals	46.5%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.1%	87.7%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.9%	12.3%	12.7%	0.97×	8.12

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.7%	57.8%	60.3%	0.96×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.3%	42.2%	39.7%	1.06×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.7%	51.1%	53.4%	0.96×	1.96
Atalanta to score 2+ in a row	31.0%	29.1%	31.8%	0.92×	3.43
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.2%	27.7%	0.91×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.6%	16.3%	17.9%	0.91×	6.14
Atalanta to score 3+ in a row	9.7%	5.6%	10.1%	0.56×	17.78
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	9.1%	5.6%	7.9%	0.71×	17.83

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta corners (+3.5)	83.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Napoli corners (+3.5)	83.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Atalanta corners (+2.5)	76.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Napoli corners (+2.5)	75.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atalanta corners (+1.5)	67.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Napoli corners (+1.5)	65.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Atalanta corners (-1.5)	34.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Napoli corners (-1.5)	32.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Atalanta corners (-2.5)	24.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Napoli corners (-2.5)	23.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Atalanta corners (-3.5)	16.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Napoli corners (-3.5)	16.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	50.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	22.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	61.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	60.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 8.5 corners	50.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	49.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	39.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	38.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.3%	11.5%	11.9%	0.97×	8.72
0-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.50
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.4%	0.99×	13.51
0-2	6.0%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-0	6.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
1-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
3-0	2.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	3.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	2.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
Any other score	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (2nd half DNB)	53.5%	52.9%	53.7%	0.99×	1.89
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	46.5%	47.1%	46.3%	1.02×	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	51.5%	55.8%	48.8%	1.14×	1.79
Atalanta leading at HT (DNB)	48.5%	44.2%	51.2%	0.86×	2.26

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or Napoli (12)	74.1%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Atalanta or draw (1X)	63.7%	63.7%	66.4%	0.96×	1.57
Napoli or draw (X2)	62.2%	63.6%	59.9%	1.06×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	69.6%	67.2%	71.5%	0.94×	1.49
Atalanta or draw at HT	67.7%	67.1%	72.9%	0.92×	1.49
Atalanta or Napoli at HT	62.7%	61.4%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw (1UP)	63.7%	71.7%	71.7%	1.00×	1.40
Napoli or draw (1UP)	62.2%	71.6%	65.4%	1.09×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta or draw in 2nd half	72.7%	74.1%	69.9%	1.06×	1.35
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	68.6%	65.7%	65.1%	1.01×	1.52
Atalanta or Napoli in 2nd half	58.7%	58.0%	64.9%	0.89×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.3%	61.5%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.7%	38.5%	36.5%	1.05×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (DNB)	51.1%	50.9%	54.4%	0.94×	1.97
Napoli (DNB)	48.9%	49.1%	45.6%	1.08×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score first	47.2%	46.0%	48.6%	0.95×	2.18
Napoli to score first	46.0%	45.9%	43.6%	1.05×	2.18
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.7%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.3%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.4%	41.6%	37.5%	1.11×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.4%	38.4%	40.1%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.3%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.0%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.9%	82.6%	86.4%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.1%	17.4%	13.6%	1.28×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.0%	74.9%	74.8%	1.00×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	21.0%	25.1%	25.2%	1.00×	3.98

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.8%	59.9%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 1st half only	21.2%	21.3%	12.2%	1.74×	4.71
Both score 2nd half only	15.4%	14.9%	20.4%	0.73×	6.72
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.2%	79.5%	83.0%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	26.8%	20.5%	17.0%	1.20×	4.88

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.3%	52.9%	52.8%	1.00×	1.89
A half without a goal	45.7%	47.1%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	48.4%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.3%	26.6%	23.9%	1.11×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.1%	26.6%	27.0%	0.98×	3.76
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.30

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.9%	34.7%	1.04×	2.78
Napoli to score exactly 0	26.5%	27.4%	30.4%	0.90×	3.65
Napoli to score exactly 2	23.4%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.48
Napoli to score 3+	14.9%	12.9%	11.9%	1.09×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score exactly 1	34.9%	32.6%	32.1%	1.02×	3.07
Atalanta to score exactly 0	25.6%	26.5%	28.3%	0.94×	3.77
Atalanta to score exactly 2	23.8%	23.3%	24.7%	0.94×	4.29
Atalanta to score 3+	15.7%	18.8%	15.1%	1.24×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.4%	38.6%	44.5%	0.87×	2.59
Napoli leading at HT	32.3%	32.9%	27.1%	1.21×	3.04
Atalanta leading at HT	30.4%	32.8%	28.5%	1.15×	3.05

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta -1: 2	62.2%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Atalanta -1: X	20.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Atalanta -1: 1	17.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	62.2%	61.4%	59.9%	1.02×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.5%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13
Atalanta (0:1)	17.3%	17.8%	17.5%	1.02×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	82.7%	82.9%	82.5%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.1%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.10
Atalanta (0:2)	6.2%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	93.8%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.02
Atalanta (0:3)	1.8%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	98.2%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.95
Atalanta (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.05

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (1:0)	63.7%	65.4%	66.4%	0.98×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	20.0%	21.7%	19.3%	1.12×	4.61
Napoli (1:0)	16.2%	17.1%	14.4%	1.19×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta (2:0)	83.8%	84.6%	85.6%	0.99×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.5%	10.3%	8.6%	1.19×	9.74
Napoli (2:0)	5.7%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	42.5%	44.3%	27.0%	1.64×	2.26
2nd half highest scoring	31.9%	29.9%	46.2%	0.65×	3.34
Halves equal	25.7%	26.2%	26.9%	0.97×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede	73.5%	73.2%	69.6%	1.05×	1.37
Atalanta clean sheet	26.5%	26.8%	30.4%	0.88×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to concede in 1st half	52.6%	55.7%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Atalanta clean sheet in 1st half	47.4%	44.3%	58.8%	0.75×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta clean sheet in 2nd half	55.9%	54.9%	49.9%	1.10×	1.82
Atalanta to concede in 2nd half	44.1%	45.1%	50.1%	0.90×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 6.5 corners	80.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Atalanta over 2.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Atalanta under 5.5 corners	69.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Atalanta over 3.5 corners	58.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atalanta under 4.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atalanta over 4.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atalanta under 3.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atalanta over 5.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Atalanta under 2.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Atalanta over 6.5 corners	20.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 3.5 goals	95.1%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Atalanta under 2.5 goals	84.3%	82.2%	84.9%	0.97×	1.22
Atalanta over 0.5 goals	74.4%	74.3%	71.7%	1.04×	1.35
Atalanta under 1.5 goals	60.5%	63.6%	60.3%	1.05×	1.57
Atalanta over 1.5 goals	39.5%	36.4%	39.7%	0.92×	2.75
Atalanta under 0.5 goals	25.6%	25.7%	28.3%	0.91×	3.89
Atalanta over 2.5 goals	15.7%	17.8%	15.1%	1.18×	5.62
Atalanta over 3.5 goals	4.9%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.45

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	84.0%	89.3%	0.94×	1.19
Atalanta over 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	50.4%	42.1%	1.20×	1.98
Atalanta under 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	49.6%	57.9%	0.86×	2.02
Atalanta over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	16.0%	10.7%	1.49×	6.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta scores equally in both	38.9%	37.8%	41.7%	0.91×	2.65
Atalanta scores more in 1st half	32.6%	33.2%	22.2%	1.49×	3.02
Atalanta scores more in 2nd half	28.5%	27.7%	36.3%	0.77×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (home no bet)	58.4%	56.4%	56.0%	1.01×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	41.6%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta even goals	53.3%	50.7%	56.2%	0.90×	1.97
Atalanta odd goals	46.7%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.2%	24.4%	33.7%	0.72×	4.10
HT 0-1	17.3%	18.6%	18.1%	1.03×	5.37
HT 1-0	16.6%	18.6%	18.5%	1.01×	5.37
HT 1-1	12.4%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.11
Any other HT score	7.4%	6.9%	3.4%	2.06×	14.47
HT 0-2	6.5%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.49
HT 2-0	5.9%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.49
HT 1-2	4.6%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	41.99
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.01
HT 2-2	1.6%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	24.6%	21.7%	19.1%	1.14×	4.61
Atalanta at HT / Atalanta at FT	24.0%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	16.1%	1.04×	5.98
Draw at HT / Atalanta at FT	11.7%	12.6%	15.8%	0.80×	7.91
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	10.2%	12.6%	12.8%	0.98×	7.92
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.66
Atalanta at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.61
Napoli at HT / Atalanta at FT	2.1%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.71
Atalanta at HT / Napoli at FT	1.6%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to score last	47.2%	46.5%	48.1%	0.97×	2.15
Napoli to score last	46.0%	46.4%	44.1%	1.05×	2.15
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	92.7%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Atalanta to lead by 1 at any time	54.5%	50.9%	55.3%	0.92×	1.97
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	53.2%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.3%	44.5%	43.7%	1.02×	2.25
Atalanta to lead by 2 at any time	23.3%	19.7%	24.0%	0.82×	5.09
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	22.2%	19.6%	20.2%	0.97×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.4%	14.9%	15.1%	0.99×	6.71
Atalanta to lead by 3 at any time	8.0%	6.7%	8.8%	0.77×	14.89
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.7%	6.5%	1.03×	14.91

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta most corners	45.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Napoli most corners	43.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.9%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.4%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.9%	63.3%	67.5%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.4%	48.5%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	48.4%	1.00×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.8%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.8%	43.6%	44.1%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.8%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.3%	30.2%	23.9%	1.27×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.8%	24.5%	21.8%	1.12×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.5%	14.8%	10.7%	1.39×	6.75
7+ goals	2.0%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta never behind	40.1%	48.4%	49.6%	0.98×	2.07
Napoli never behind	38.7%	44.1%	44.7%	0.99×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.7%	51.6%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.3%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.3%	52.0%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.7%	48.0%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.5%	87.6%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	73.0%	0.99×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.7%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.4%	52.5%	48.1%	1.09×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.6%	47.5%	51.9%	0.92×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.3%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	27.0%	1.02×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.5%	12.4%	11.5%	1.08×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.1%	81.1%	86.7%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.8%	67.4%	64.1%	1.05×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.6%	61.9%	67.7%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.4%	38.1%	32.3%	1.18×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.2%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.9%	18.9%	13.3%	1.42×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.1%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.9%	85.8%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.8%	78.3%	66.3%	1.18×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.1%	63.7%	70.1%	0.91×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.9%	36.3%	29.9%	1.21×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.2%	21.7%	33.7%	0.64×	4.61
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.1%	14.2%	8.8%	1.63×	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	85.5%	82.4%	1.04×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	77.5%	78.6%	0.99×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	68.6%	56.9%	1.21×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	31.4%	43.1%	0.73×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	22.5%	21.4%	1.05×	4.44
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	14.5%	17.6%	0.82×	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to score in both halves	76.8%	78.5%	78.4%	1.00×	1.27
Atalanta not to score in both halves	75.7%	78.4%	75.8%	1.04×	1.28
Atalanta to score in both halves	24.3%	21.6%	24.3%	0.89×	4.64
Napoli to score in both halves	23.2%	21.5%	21.6%	1.00×	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.7%	53.9%	49.2%	1.09×	1.86
Only Atalanta scores	19.7%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Only Napoli scores	18.8%	16.0%	20.5%	0.78×	6.24
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.6%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.3%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.54×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.9%	35.8%	36.5%	0.98×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	24.7%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.65
No goals in 1st half	23.2%	21.5%	33.7%	0.64×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	18.1%	15.7%	8.8%	1.79×	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.0%	38.9%	35.7%	1.09×	2.57
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.8%	33.9%	43.1%	0.79×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	29.2%	29.3%	21.4%	1.37×	3.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win both halves	91.2%	94.1%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
Atalanta not to win both halves	90.5%	94.1%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Atalanta to win both halves	9.5%	5.9%	10.1%	0.59×	16.83
Napoli to win both halves	8.8%	5.9%	8.9%	0.67×	16.89

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atalanta to win either half	52.2%	54.2%	53.3%	1.02×	1.84
Napoli to win either half	50.7%	54.2%	48.4%	1.12×	1.85
Napoli to win neither half	49.3%	45.8%	51.6%	0.89×	2.18
Atalanta to win neither half	47.8%	45.8%	46.7%	0.98×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win to nil	81.2%	83.1%	79.5%	1.05×	1.20
Atalanta not to win to nil	80.3%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Atalanta to win to nil	19.7%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.91
Napoli to win to nil	18.8%	16.9%	20.5%	0.82×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Atalanta by 1	20.5%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Napoli by 1	20.0%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.15
Atalanta by 2	11.1%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.51
Napoli by 2	10.5%	11.8%	8.6%	1.36×	8.51
Atalanta by 3+	6.2%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.91
Napoli by 3+	5.7%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.92