Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 15
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 9
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
2.29 – 1.07
Goals − xG
-1.51 – -1.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
62.7%
Draw
22.5%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
14.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWWLLLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 7.5 xG
conceded 11
from 16.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.79–0.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–0.87 | 2-0 11% | 57% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 5.51 xGParma Calcio 1913 1.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrian Benedyczak | 0.35 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 5' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Alessandro Circati | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 11' |
 Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 11' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 12' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 21' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 23' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 26' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 28' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.93 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Oliver Sørensen | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 40' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sascha Britschgi |
| 50' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gianluca Scamacca |
| 50' |
Atalanta |
Isak Hien | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 51' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mariano Troilo | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 55' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 62' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 64' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 65' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 65' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 69' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mariano Troilo |
| 71' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sascha Britschgi |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.83 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nikola Krstovic |
| 75' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.54 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 83' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 88' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Éderson |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.52 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 91' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.92 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Jacob Ondrejka | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Adrián Bernabé AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.01 | 1.15 | 0.33 |
| Sascha Britschgi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.39 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enrico Del Prato DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Oliver Sørensen AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adrian Benedyczak FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nahuel Estévez MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Pellegrino Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| Emanuele Valeri Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giacomo Raspadori AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 1.31 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.04 | 0.95 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.84 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1.38 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 1.58 | 1.95 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.76 | 0.08 | 1.66 |
| Nicola Zalewski DML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 28 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.27 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.87 |
| Ademola Lookman Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |