Atalanta v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.49 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-1.77 – -1.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
31.9%
Draw
33.9%
Roma win
34.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.11 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 2.77 xGRoma 1.02 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Evan Ferguson |
| 6' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 6' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 11' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.96 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 19' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 27' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 38' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Roma |
Evan Ferguson | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 49' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 51' |
Roma |
Devyne Rensch | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Cristante |
| 61' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 63' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley |
| 64' |
Atalanta |
Lorenzo Bernasconi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Éderson |
| 68' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 80' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 83' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Berat Gjimshiti |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Dybala AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.69 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Evan Ferguson FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Devyne Rensch DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jan Ziólkowski DC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Éderson MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 0.78 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Honest Ahanor Sub | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.00 |