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Atalanta v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 1 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–1
3.35 – 0.63 xG
Shots
22 – 5
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
17 – 2
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.96 – 0.47
Goals − xG
-2.35 – +0.37
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Berat Gjimshiti 34' — goalGuillermo Maripán 39' — goal
Atalanta 3.35 xGTorino 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Marco Brescianini 24' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Raoul Bellanova 31' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Berat Gjimshiti 34' — Goal (0.05 xG, From Corner)Guillermo Maripán 39' — Goal (0.47 xG, Set Piece)Yann Karamoh 42' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Isak Hien 46' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Marco Brescianini 47' — Saved Shot (0.61 xG, Open Play)Marco Brescianini 47' — Blocked Shot (0.52 xG, Open Play)Che Adams 49' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Samuele Ricci 49' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 54' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Juan Cuadrado 59' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Lazar Samardzic 59' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 61' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mario Pasalic 65' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Juan Cuadrado 68' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 73' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Juan Cuadrado 74' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mario Pasalic 78' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 78' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mario Pasalic 81' — Saved Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Mario Pasalic 83' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Scamacca 85' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Alieu Njie 86' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Juan Cuadrado 90' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lazar Samardzic 93' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Marten de Roon 96' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Atalanta attacking right Torino attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
24' Atalanta Marco Brescianini 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Raoul Bellanova
31' Atalanta Raoul Bellanova 0.01 Open Play Blocked Shot Matteo Ruggeri
34' Atalanta Berat Gjimshiti 0.05 From Corner Goal Raoul Bellanova
39' Torino Guillermo Maripán 0.47 Set Piece Goal Valentino Lazaro
42' Torino Yann Karamoh 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Samuele Ricci
46' Atalanta Isak Hien 0.07 Set Piece Saved Shot Raoul Bellanova
47' Atalanta Marco Brescianini 0.61 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Charles De Ketelaere
47' Atalanta Marco Brescianini 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mateo Retegui
49' Torino Che Adams 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Tameze
49' Torino Samuele Ricci 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrien Tameze
54' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
59' Atalanta Juan Cuadrado 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Éderson
59' Atalanta Lazar Samardzic 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Éderson
61' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mario Pasalic
65' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mateo Retegui
68' Atalanta Juan Cuadrado 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lazar Samardzic
73' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.76 Right Foot Saved Shot
74' Atalanta Juan Cuadrado 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
78' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mateo Retegui
78' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Raoul Bellanova
81' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.50 Open Play Saved Shot Lazar Samardzic
83' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Juan Cuadrado
85' Atalanta Gianluca Scamacca 0.13 Open Play Saved Shot Juan Cuadrado
86' Torino Alieu Njie 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nikola Vlasic
90' Atalanta Juan Cuadrado 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mario Pasalic
93' Atalanta Lazar Samardzic 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Berat Gjimshiti
96' Atalanta Marten de Roon 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Torino

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Guillermo Maripán DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.47 0.00 0.11
Samuele Ricci MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.12
Borna Sosa DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Saúl Coco DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Nikola Vlasic MR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.13
Valentino Lazaro DR 88 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.47 0.02
Adrien Tameze MC 79 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.11
Che Adams FW 66 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Yann Karamoh ML 66 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Marcus Pedersen DC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sebastian Walukiewicz Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alieu Njie Sub 24 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Antonio Sanabria Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Gvidas Gineitis Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Adam Masina Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04

Atalanta

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marten de Roon MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 1.41
Isak Hien DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 1.25
Berat Gjimshiti DC 90 1 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 1.55
Raoul Bellanova MR 90 0 1 1 4 0.01 0.19 0.83
Éderson MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.91
Rui Patrício GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Mateo Retegui FW 88 0 0 3 3 0.81 0.66 0.71
Rafael Toloi Sub 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Marco Brescianini AMC 60 0 0 3 0 1.18 0.00 1.19
Charles De Ketelaere FW 60 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.61 1.17
Matteo Ruggeri ML 60 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.62
Mario Pasalic Sub 30 0 0 4 2 0.77 0.06 1.03
Juan Cuadrado Sub 30 0 0 4 2 0.13 0.26 0.97
Lazar Samardzic Sub 30 0 0 2 2 0.09 0.52 0.77
Sead Kolasinac DC 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Scamacca Sub 2 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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