Atalanta v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.54 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-0.55 – -0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atalanta win
58.1%
Draw
23.0%
Torino win
18.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.79–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–0.97 | 2-0 10% | 57% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atalanta 2.55 xGTorino 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atalanta attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 12' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 17' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 19' |
 Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 20' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 22' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.32 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 33' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 33' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Éderson |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Éderson |
| 40' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 43' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrien Tameze |
| 47' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 48' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 50' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Torino |
Duván Zapata | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 59' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 65' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 65' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 74' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 75' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 78' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 80' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 87' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
| 94' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gianluca Scamacca |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Adrien Tameze MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Cyril Ngonge FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Duván Zapata FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Che Adams Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.38 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Cristiano Biraghi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Njie Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.95 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.42 | 0.76 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.11 | 0.78 | 1.10 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.12 | 1.15 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Gianluca Scamacca Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |