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Athletic Club v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 September 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

3–1
0.86 – 1.22 xG
Shots
10 – 11
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.84
Goals − xG
+2.12 – -0.22
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Gorka Guruzeta 3' — goalIago Aspas 24' — goalGorka Guruzeta 38' — goalÁlvaro Djaló 79' — goal
Athletic Club 0.88 xGCelta Vigo 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Gorka Guruzeta 0' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Gorka Guruzeta 3' — Goal (0.14 xG, Open Play)Oihan Sancet 3' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Tasos Douvikas 6' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Carl Starfelt 19' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Hugo Álvarez 19' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Iago Aspas 24' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Marcos Alonso 34' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gorka Guruzeta 38' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alex Berenguer 47' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mikel Jauregizar 53' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Dani Vivian 54' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Oihan Sancet 56' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Bamba 57' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Borja Iglesias 69' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Carl Starfelt 70' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Álvaro Djaló 79' — Goal (0.15 xG, Open Play)Álvaro Djaló 82' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Borja Iglesias 82' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Carlos Domínguez 92' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Williot Swedberg 92' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Athletic Club attacking right Celta Vigo attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.10 From Corner Missed Shot De Marcos
3' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Goal
3' Athletic Club Oihan Sancet 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Iñaki Williams
6' Celta Vigo Tasos Douvikas 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iago Aspas
19' Celta Vigo Carl Starfelt 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Hugo Sotelo
19' Celta Vigo Hugo Álvarez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Javier Rodríguez
24' Celta Vigo Iago Aspas 0.74 Left Foot Goal
34' Celta Vigo Marcos Alonso 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jonathan Bamba
38' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.05 Open Play Goal Alex Berenguer
47' Athletic Club Alex Berenguer 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
53' Athletic Club Mikel Jauregizar 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
54' Athletic Club Dani Vivian 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Mikel Jauregizar
56' Athletic Club Oihan Sancet 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
57' Celta Vigo Jonathan Bamba 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marcos Alonso
69' Celta Vigo Borja Iglesias 0.01 Open Play Blocked Shot Marcos Alonso
70' Celta Vigo Carl Starfelt 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Damián Rodríguez
79' Athletic Club Álvaro Djaló 0.15 Open Play Goal Iñaki Williams
82' Athletic Club Álvaro Djaló 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
82' Celta Vigo Borja Iglesias 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ilaix Moriba
92' Celta Vigo Carlos Domínguez 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Damián Rodríguez
92' Celta Vigo Williot Swedberg 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iago Aspas

Players

Athletic Club

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Oihan Sancet AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.32
Dani Vivian DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.18
Aitor Paredes DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Beñat Prados DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
De Marcos DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.33
Iñaki Williams AMR 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.28
Gorka Guruzeta FW 80 2 0 3 0 0.28 0.00 0.19
Alex Berenguer AML 78 0 1 1 1 0.11 0.05 0.16
Mikel Jauregizar DMC 68 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.09 0.12
Adama Boiro DL 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Julen Agirrezabala GK 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Álex Padilla Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Íñigo Lekue Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Unai Gómez Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Álvaro Djaló Sub 10 1 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.16

Celta Vigo

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Iago Aspas FWR 90 1 0 1 2 0.74 0.13 0.30
Carl Starfelt DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.07
Jonathan Bamba FWL 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.08 0.15
Javier Rodríguez DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.18
Vicente Guaita GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Damián Rodríguez MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.27
Marcos Alonso Sub 86 0 0 1 2 0.08 0.07 0.15
Tasos Douvikas FW 71 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Hugo Álvarez DMR 70 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.17
Hugo Sotelo MC 66 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.17
Jaílson DC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Carlos Domínguez Sub 24 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.01
Ilaix Moriba Sub 24 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Williot Swedberg Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Borja Iglesias Sub 19 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Óscar Mingueza DML 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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