Athletic Club v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Athletic Club

15:00 UTC

Elche

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 99h before kick-off

Athletic Club win

54.0%

model 53.1%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.8%

Elche win

23.0%

model 23.1%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (425 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
1-0 10.7%
2-1 9.7%
2-0 9.2%
0-1 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.7%	Under 2.5	47.3%
BTTS yes	53.6%	BTTS no	46.4%
Athletic Club 1+	82.2%	Athletic Club 2+	51.5%
Elche 1+	65.2%	Elche 2+	28.5%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Athletic Club over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 42%

52.9% fair odds 1.89

moderate signal · 785 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Athletic Club not to win both halves

Win both halves · usually 88%

82.9% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Athletic Club carry the stronger rating, 1521 Elo against 1474.
Athletic Club have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.54.
At home Athletic Club average 1.53 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 1.05 expected goal involvements a match against 0.66.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Athletic Club have an estimated 54.0% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 23.0% for Elche. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.73 for Athletic Club and 1.06 for Elche.

Why Athletic Club

Athletic Club carry the stronger rating, 1521 Elo against 1474. Athletic Club have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.54. At home Athletic Club average 1.53 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 1.05 expected goal involvements a match against 0.66.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Elche can win

Elche have created 1.26 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.45. Away from home Elche average 1.03 xG a match.

Key players

Athletic Club's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Iñaki Williams (0.41), Gorka Guruzeta (0.37), Nico Williams (0.28). Elche's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fernando Niño (0.46), Alvaro Rodríguez (0.42), André Silva (0.36).

Availability

1 of Athletic Club's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Elche's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Elche's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Athletic Club: 41% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Elche: 54% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.38 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Athletic Club are the model's most likely outcome at 54.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LWLLDLLLWW last 10 scored 15 from 14.7 xG conceded 18 from 14.5 xG

Elche are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLDLWDDLLL last 10 scored 12 from 12.6 xG conceded 20 from 15.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	532423	1.73–1.06	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	612218	1.92–0.92	1-0 11%	54%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win	53.1%	52.1%	46.8%	1.11×	1.92
Draw	23.8%	22.2%	25.2%	0.88×	4.50
Elche to win	23.1%	22.2%	28.1%	0.79×	4.50

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club & not both score	28.6%	26.2%	25.3%	1.04×	3.82
Athletic Club & both teams score	24.5%	22.7%	21.7%	1.05×	4.40
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	17.8%	20.2%	0.88×	5.61
Elche & both teams score	11.5%	12.1%	13.7%	0.88×	8.26
Elche & not both score	11.6%	12.1%	14.6%	0.83×	8.26
Draw & not both score	6.2%	7.3%	5.1%	1.43×	13.73

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club & over 1.5	42.4%	43.7%	34.1%	1.28×	2.29
Athletic Club & under 3.5	35.0%	33.1%	33.0%	1.00×	3.02
Athletic Club & over 2.5	33.2%	33.1%	28.0%	1.18×	3.02
Athletic Club & under 2.5	19.9%	17.6%	18.9%	0.93×	5.68
Athletic Club & over 3.5	18.1%	17.6%	13.9%	1.26×	5.68
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.68
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.68
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.68
Elche & under 3.5	17.1%	17.6%	21.7%	0.81×	5.68
Elche & over 1.5	16.6%	17.6%	21.2%	0.83×	5.68
Elche & over 2.5	13.2%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.87
Athletic Club & under 1.5	10.7%	12.7%	12.8%	0.99×	7.88
Elche & under 2.5	10.0%	7.5%	11.6%	0.65×	13.33
Elche & under 1.5	6.5%	7.5%	7.1%	1.06×	13.34
Draw & under 1.5	6.2%	7.5%	5.1%	1.47×	13.35
Draw & over 2.5	6.3%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.35
Draw & over 3.5	6.3%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.35
Elche & over 3.5	6.0%	7.5%	6.6%	1.14×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (1UP)	67.1%	72.1%	63.2%	1.14×	1.39
Elche (1UP)	41.0%	43.2%	47.1%	0.92×	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2UP)	53.1%	54.0%	48.7%	1.11×	1.85
Elche (2UP)	23.1%	21.0%	29.7%	0.71×	4.77

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win 2nd half	38.3%	37.5%	39.5%	0.95×	2.67
2nd half drawn	36.5%	37.4%	33.0%	1.14×	2.67
Elche to win 2nd half	25.1%	27.4%	27.7%	0.99×	3.65

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.8%	85.3%	84.5%	1.01×	1.17
Elche under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	51.5%	48.3%	1.07×	1.94
Elche over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	48.5%	51.7%	0.94×	2.06
Elche over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.2%	14.7%	15.5%	0.95×	6.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	77.4%	80.0%	0.97×	1.29
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	58.8%	58.7%	1.00×	1.70
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	41.2%	41.3%	1.00×	2.43
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	22.6%	20.0%	1.13×	4.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (+2.5)	87.1%	89.0%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Athletic Club (+0.5)	76.9%	78.7%	71.9%	1.10×	1.27
Elche (+1.5)	70.8%	73.1%	79.2%	0.92×	1.37
Athletic Club (-0.5)	53.1%	51.9%	46.8%	1.11×	1.93
Elche (+0.5)	46.9%	48.1%	53.2%	0.90×	2.08
Athletic Club (-1.5)	29.2%	27.0%	20.8%	1.30×	3.71
Elche (-0.5)	23.1%	21.3%	28.1%	0.76×	4.70
Athletic Club (-2.5)	12.9%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede	82.2%	84.7%	80.4%	1.05×	1.18
Elche clean sheet	17.8%	15.3%	19.6%	0.78×	6.54

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 1st half	58.2%	60.4%	48.1%	1.26×	1.66
Elche clean sheet in 1st half	41.8%	39.6%	51.9%	0.76×	2.52

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 2nd half	57.5%	59.2%	58.7%	1.01×	1.69
Elche clean sheet in 2nd half	42.5%	40.8%	41.3%	0.99×	2.45

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 6.5 corners	89.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Elche under 5.5 corners	81.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Elche under 4.5 corners	69.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Elche over 2.5 corners	65.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Elche under 3.5 corners	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Elche over 3.5 corners	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Elche under 2.5 corners	34.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Elche over 4.5 corners	30.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Elche over 5.5 corners	18.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Elche over 6.5 corners	10.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 3.5 goals	97.7%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Elche under 2.5 goals	90.9%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Elche under 1.5 goals	71.5%	72.0%	68.1%	1.06×	1.39
Elche over 0.5 goals	65.2%	67.2%	69.7%	0.96×	1.49
Elche under 0.5 goals	34.8%	32.8%	30.3%	1.08×	3.05
Elche over 1.5 goals	28.5%	28.0%	31.9%	0.88×	3.57
Elche over 2.5 goals	9.1%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.75
Elche over 3.5 goals	2.3%	2.7%	2.7%	1.00×	36.64

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 1st half	93.2%	93.3%	93.3%	1.00×	1.07
Elche under 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	67.0%	63.4%	1.06×	1.49
Elche over 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	33.0%	36.6%	0.90×	3.03
Elche over 1.5 in 1st half	6.8%	6.7%	6.7%	0.99×	15.01

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche scores equally in both	44.7%	42.3%	42.2%	1.00×	2.36
Elche scores more in 2nd half	34.5%	32.4%	37.1%	0.88×	3.08
Elche scores more in 1st half	20.8%	21.5%	20.8%	1.03×	4.65

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (away no bet)	69.1%	72.3%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Draw (away no bet)	30.9%	27.7%	34.9%	0.79×	3.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche even goals	56.0%	58.3%	53.9%	1.08×	1.71
Elche odd goals	44.0%	41.7%	46.1%	0.90×	2.40

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.7%	81.8%	86.9%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.3%	18.2%	13.1%	1.39×	5.49

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.7%	66.3%	62.4%	1.06×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.3%	33.7%	37.6%	0.90×	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.8%	59.4%	52.3%	1.13×	1.69
Athletic Club to score 2+ in a row	43.6%	45.1%	34.3%	1.31×	2.22
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.0%	21.8%	18.9%	1.15×	4.59
Elche to score 2+ in a row	20.2%	21.7%	23.6%	0.92×	4.60
Athletic Club to score 3+ in a row	17.5%	17.8%	13.0%	1.37×	5.62
Elche to score 3+ in a row	4.7%	3.4%	6.4%	0.54×	29.18

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club corners (+3.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Athletic Club corners (+2.5)	89.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Athletic Club corners (+1.5)	83.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Elche corners (+3.5)	67.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Elche corners (+2.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Athletic Club corners (-1.5)	54.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Elche corners (+1.5)	45.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Athletic Club corners (-2.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Athletic Club corners (-3.5)	32.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Elche corners (-1.5)	16.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Elche corners (-2.5)	10.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Elche corners (-3.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.7%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	66.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	65.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	56.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	34.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	34.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	25.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	18.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.6%	15.1%	0.77×	8.62
1-0	10.7%	11.6%	12.8%	0.90×	8.62
2-1	9.7%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.75
2-0	9.2%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.76
0-1	6.5%	7.3%	7.1%	1.02×	13.77
0-0	6.2%	7.3%	5.1%	1.42×	13.77
1-2	6.0%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.77
3-1	5.6%	7.3%	3.6%	2.01×	13.77
2-2	5.1%	7.3%	4.4%	1.67×	13.77
3-0	5.3%	7.3%	4.6%	1.58×	13.77
0-2	3.4%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.42
3-2	3.0%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.43
Any other score	3.6%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.42
0-3	1.2%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.48
1-3	2.1%	1.8%	1.9%	0.97×	55.46
2-3	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.46
4-0	2.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.45
4-1	2.4%	1.8%	2.0%	0.91×	55.45
4-2	1.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.48
0-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.50
1-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
2-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.50
3-3	1.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.48
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.50
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.51

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2nd half DNB)	60.4%	66.5%	58.7%	1.13×	1.50
Elche (2nd half DNB)	39.6%	33.5%	41.3%	0.81×	2.98

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club leading at HT (DNB)	72.2%	73.5%	62.3%	1.18×	1.36
Elche leading at HT (DNB)	27.8%	26.5%	37.7%	0.70×	3.77

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw (1X)	76.9%	77.8%	71.9%	1.08×	1.29
Athletic Club or Elche (12)	76.2%	77.8%	74.8%	1.04×	1.29
Elche or draw (X2)	46.9%	47.9%	53.2%	0.90×	2.09

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw at HT	82.9%	81.7%	78.5%	1.04×	1.22
Athletic Club or Elche at HT	61.5%	63.2%	56.8%	1.11×	1.58
Elche or draw at HT	55.6%	58.1%	64.5%	0.90×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw (1UP)	76.9%	84.8%	78.2%	1.08×	1.18
Elche or draw (1UP)	46.9%	55.0%	60.1%	0.92×	1.82

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw in 2nd half	74.9%	72.6%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Athletic Club or Elche in 2nd half	63.5%	62.6%	67.0%	0.93×	1.60
Elche or draw in 2nd half	61.7%	62.5%	60.5%	1.03×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.0%	59.3%	62.2%	0.95×	1.69
Neither half drawn	39.0%	40.7%	37.8%	1.07×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (DNB)	69.7%	69.1%	62.5%	1.11×	1.45
Elche (DNB)	30.3%	30.9%	37.5%	0.82×	3.23

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score first	58.2%	62.3%	55.4%	1.12×	1.61
Elche to score first	35.6%	37.1%	39.6%	0.94×	2.70
No goal scored	6.2%	6.2%	5.1%	1.22×	16.07

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.6%	53.2%	55.3%	0.96×	1.88
Not both teams to score	46.4%	46.8%	44.7%	1.05×	2.14

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.4%	42.3%	40.3%	1.05×	2.36
Not both score & under 2.5	36.1%	37.4%	35.4%	1.06×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	11.7%	15.1%	0.78×	8.55
Not both score & over 2.5	10.3%	11.7%	9.5%	1.23×	8.56

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.3%	85.4%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.7%	14.6%	13.8%	1.06×	6.83

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.1%	70.3%	71.4%	0.99×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.9%	29.7%	28.6%	1.04×	3.37

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.4%	57.7%	60.3%	0.96×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	21.5%	24.4%	23.1%	1.05×	4.11
Both score 1st half only	14.7%	11.6%	11.2%	1.03×	8.61
Both score in both halves	5.4%	6.4%	5.6%	1.13×	15.72

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.9%	80.0%	83.3%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	20.1%	20.0%	16.7%	1.20×	4.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.2%	55.6%	54.8%	1.02×	1.80
A half without a goal	43.8%	44.4%	45.2%	0.98×	2.25

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
4-6 goals	28.1%	27.7%	23.4%	1.18×	3.61
0-1 goals	23.4%	22.7%	24.8%	0.92×	4.40
7+ goals	2.4%	1.9%	2.2%	0.86×	51.84

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score exactly 1	36.7%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Elche to score exactly 0	34.8%	33.1%	30.3%	1.09×	3.02
Elche to score exactly 2	19.4%	18.5%	22.0%	0.84×	5.40
Elche to score 3+	9.1%	7.5%	10.0%	0.76×	13.28

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score exactly 1	30.7%	30.4%	38.4%	0.79×	3.29
Athletic Club to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.1%	22.7%	1.19×	3.70
Athletic Club to score 3+	25.0%	27.0%	19.7%	1.37×	3.70
Athletic Club to score exactly 0	17.8%	18.5%	19.6%	0.95×	5.41

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club leading at HT	44.4%	41.9%	35.5%	1.18×	2.39
Draw at HT	38.5%	36.8%	43.2%	0.85×	2.72
Elche leading at HT	17.1%	18.3%	21.5%	0.85×	5.47

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club -1: 2	46.9%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Athletic Club -1: 1	29.2%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Athletic Club -1: X	23.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:1)	46.9%	47.7%	53.2%	0.90×	2.10
Athletic Club (0:1)	29.2%	26.5%	20.8%	1.27×	3.77
Draw (0:1)	23.9%	24.5%	26.2%	0.94×	4.08

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:2)	70.8%	73.3%	79.2%	0.93×	1.37
Draw (0:2)	16.3%	16.3%	11.0%	1.48×	6.15
Athletic Club (0:2)	12.9%	11.6%	10.0%	1.16×	8.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:3)	87.1%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	8.2%	6.8%	7.1%	0.96×	14.62
Athletic Club (0:3)	4.7%	2.3%	3.0%	0.78×	42.81

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:4)	95.3%	98.0%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.3%	1.2%	2.4%	0.53×	80.45
Athletic Club (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	0.7%	1.64×	81.39

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (1:0)	76.9%	78.5%	71.9%	1.09×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.6%	11.7%	17.7%	0.66×	8.53
Elche (1:0)	8.5%	8.6%	10.6%	0.81×	11.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2:0)	91.5%	91.6%	89.4%	1.02×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	6.1%	6.5%	6.8%	0.95×	15.41
Elche (2:0)	2.4%	2.7%	3.9%	0.70×	37.02

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.8%	49.3%	51.3%	0.96×	2.03
Halves equal	25.2%	26.1%	22.5%	1.16×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	33.0%	25.9%	26.3%	0.98×	3.86

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to concede	65.2%	66.9%	69.7%	0.96×	1.49
Athletic Club clean sheet	34.8%	33.1%	30.3%	1.09×	3.02

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 1st half	65.4%	67.2%	63.4%	1.06×	1.49
Athletic Club to concede in 1st half	34.6%	32.8%	36.6%	0.90×	3.05

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 2nd half	53.2%	51.3%	48.3%	1.06×	1.95
Athletic Club to concede in 2nd half	46.8%	48.7%	51.7%	0.94×	2.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club over 2.5 corners	86.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Athletic Club over 3.5 corners	74.9%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Athletic Club under 6.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Athletic Club over 4.5 corners	61.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Athletic Club under 5.5 corners	52.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Athletic Club over 5.5 corners	47.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Athletic Club under 4.5 corners	38.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Athletic Club over 6.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Athletic Club under 3.5 corners	25.1%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Athletic Club under 2.5 corners	13.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.1%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals	82.2%	82.5%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals	75.0%	72.9%	80.3%	0.91×	1.37
Athletic Club over 1.5 goals	51.5%	52.9%	42.2%	1.25×	1.89
Athletic Club under 1.5 goals	48.5%	47.1%	57.8%	0.81×	2.12
Athletic Club over 2.5 goals	25.0%	27.1%	19.7%	1.38×	3.69
Athletic Club under 0.5 goals	17.8%	17.5%	19.6%	0.89×	5.72
Athletic Club over 3.5 goals	9.7%	7.9%	7.3%	1.07×	12.72

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 1st half	78.3%	79.3%	86.0%	0.92×	1.26
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	60.2%	48.1%	1.25×	1.66
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	39.8%	51.9%	0.77×	2.51
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 1st half	21.7%	20.7%	14.0%	1.48×	4.83

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club scores equally in both	33.7%	31.6%	32.5%	0.97×	3.16
Athletic Club scores more in 1st half	33.5%	31.6%	27.7%	1.14×	3.16
Athletic Club scores more in 2nd half	32.7%	31.6%	40.0%	0.79×	3.17

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (home no bet)	49.3%	50.9%	52.8%	0.96×	1.97
Draw (home no bet)	50.7%	49.1%	47.2%	1.04×	2.04

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club even goals	51.6%	50.2%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Athletic Club odd goals	48.4%	49.8%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.4%	28.1%	32.1%	0.88×	3.56
HT 1-0	23.8%	22.7%	22.7%	1.00×	4.41
HT 0-1	11.6%	11.2%	16.2%	0.69×	8.95
HT 2-0	10.4%	11.2%	6.2%	1.79×	8.96
HT 1-1	10.1%	11.2%	10.1%	1.10×	8.96
Any other HT score	6.7%	7.7%	4.5%	1.71×	13.01
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.5%	3.2%	0.78×	39.75
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.5%	3.1%	0.80×	39.86
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.5%	1.5%	1.67×	39.88
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	1.2%	2.01×	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club at HT / Athletic Club at FT	36.4%	41.5%	26.5%	1.57×	2.41
Draw at HT / Athletic Club at FT	14.7%	12.0%	18.0%	0.67×	8.36
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.1%	12.0%	14.0%	0.86×	8.37
Elche at HT / Elche at FT	11.4%	11.9%	12.9%	0.93×	8.39
Draw at HT / Elche at FT	9.7%	6.6%	11.5%	0.57×	15.16
Athletic Club at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.6%	5.2%	1.25×	15.25
Elche at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.4%	6.1%	0.56×	29.35
Athletic Club at HT / Elche at FT	2.1%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.42
Elche at HT / Athletic Club at FT	1.9%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.42

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score last	58.2%	56.8%	55.7%	1.02×	1.76
Elche to score last	35.6%	37.9%	39.3%	0.96×	2.64
No goal scored	6.2%	6.2%	5.1%	1.22×	16.07

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.8%	93.7%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Athletic Club to lead by 1 at any time	67.1%	70.9%	63.2%	1.12×	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.9%	46.2%	41.6%	1.11×	2.17
Elche to lead by 1 at any time	41.0%	42.1%	47.1%	0.89×	2.38
Athletic Club to lead by 2 at any time	35.8%	37.3%	26.5%	1.41×	2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.9%	17.6%	16.7%	1.05×	5.67
Athletic Club to lead by 3 at any time	15.4%	17.6%	12.2%	1.44×	5.69
Elche to lead by 2 at any time	13.4%	11.4%	15.5%	0.73×	8.79
Elche to lead by 3 at any time	3.5%	2.6%	4.6%	0.57×	38.05

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club most corners	65.7%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Elche most corners	24.4%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.8%	78.9%	81.2%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.2%	73.6%	73.1%	1.01×	1.36
2-5 goals	70.3%	73.6%	69.5%	1.06×	1.36
1-3 goals	63.4%	62.2%	69.5%	0.90×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.2%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
3-6 goals	50.3%	52.3%	47.6%	1.10×	1.91
3-5 goals	46.3%	48.0%	44.0%	1.09×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.2%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
1-2 goals	41.2%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.7%	38.9%	36.0%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	28.1%	30.6%	23.4%	1.31×	3.27
4-5 goals	24.1%	24.8%	19.8%	1.25×	4.04
5-6 goals	12.6%	13.5%	11.7%	1.15×	7.41
7+ goals	2.4%	2.0%	2.2%	0.90×	49.83

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club never behind	52.8%	61.3%	52.9%	1.16×	1.63
Elche never behind	26.8%	30.7%	36.8%	0.83×	3.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.2%	53.7%	0.94×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.8%	46.3%	1.07×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	52.0%	53.6%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.0%	46.4%	1.03×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.8%	93.0%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.6%	93.0%	94.1%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.0%	88.7%	86.2%	1.03×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	78.1%	75.2%	1.04×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	69.6%	65.4%	74.5%	0.88×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	52.7%	53.5%	49.7%	1.08×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	47.3%	46.5%	50.3%	0.92×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	30.4%	34.6%	25.5%	1.36×	2.89
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	21.9%	24.8%	0.88×	4.56
Over 4.5 goals	15.0%	11.3%	13.8%	0.82×	8.86
Over 5.5 goals	6.4%	7.0%	5.9%	1.20×	14.28
Under 0.5 goals	6.2%	7.0%	5.1%	1.37×	14.28

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.3%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.0%	92.8%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.3%	80.5%	84.3%	0.96×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.3%	68.1%	66.7%	1.02×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.9%	62.3%	66.3%	0.94×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.1%	37.7%	33.7%	1.12×	2.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.7%	32.0%	33.3%	0.96×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.7%	19.5%	15.7%	1.24×	5.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.0%	7.2%	6.4%	1.13×	13.95
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.7%	2.3%	1.18×	36.38

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.8%	88.0%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.6%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.8%	63.0%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.2%	37.0%	29.2%	1.27×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.4%	27.6%	32.1%	0.86×	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.2%	12.0%	10.1%	1.18×	8.35

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.2%	82.0%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.4%	80.4%	81.8%	0.98×	1.24
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.1%	53.7%	1.01×	1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.9%	46.3%	0.99×	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.6%	19.6%	18.2%	1.08×	5.09
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.8%	18.0%	20.4%	0.89×	5.55

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to score in both halves	83.8%	81.7%	81.4%	1.00×	1.22
Athletic Club not to score in both halves	66.5%	66.9%	73.7%	0.91×	1.50
Athletic Club to score in both halves	33.5%	33.1%	26.3%	1.26×	3.02
Elche to score in both halves	16.2%	18.3%	18.6%	0.98×	5.46

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.6%	55.0%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
Only Athletic Club scores	28.6%	25.5%	25.3%	1.01×	3.91
Only Elche scores	11.6%	10.8%	14.6%	0.74×	9.23
Neither team scores	6.2%	6.6%	5.1%	1.29×	15.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.9%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	21.6%	24.3%	0.89×	4.63
Exactly 1 goals	17.2%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	15.5%	18.5%	11.8%	1.57×	5.40
Exactly 5 goals	8.6%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.11
6 or more goals	6.4%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.2%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.3%	38.8%	0.96×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.4%	27.5%	32.1%	0.86×	3.63
2 goals in 1st half	23.0%	21.6%	19.2%	1.12×	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	14.2%	12.0%	10.1%	1.18×	8.36

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.8%	46.6%	46.3%	1.01×	2.15
1 goal in 2nd half	33.6%	33.2%	35.6%	0.93×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	22.6%	18.5%	18.2%	1.02×	5.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win both halves	95.7%	96.6%	94.6%	1.02×	1.04
Athletic Club not to win both halves	83.0%	82.9%	88.1%	0.94×	1.21
Athletic Club to win both halves	17.0%	17.1%	11.9%	1.44×	5.84
Elche to win both halves	4.3%	3.4%	5.4%	0.64×	29.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win either half	65.7%	67.1%	63.0%	1.06×	1.49
Elche to win neither half	62.1%	63.7%	56.2%	1.13×	1.57
Elche to win either half	37.9%	36.3%	43.8%	0.83×	2.75
Athletic Club to win neither half	34.3%	32.9%	37.0%	0.89×	3.04

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win to nil	88.4%	88.2%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Athletic Club not to win to nil	71.4%	74.5%	74.7%	1.00×	1.34
Athletic Club to win to nil	28.6%	25.5%	25.3%	1.01×	3.91
Elche to win to nil	11.6%	11.8%	14.6%	0.81×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club by 1	23.9%	23.9%	26.2%	0.91×	4.19
Draw	23.8%	23.9%	25.2%	0.95×	4.19
Athletic Club by 2	16.3%	17.0%	11.0%	1.56×	5.87
Elche by 1	14.6%	11.7%	17.7%	0.66×	8.52
Athletic Club by 3+	12.9%	11.7%	10.0%	1.18×	8.53
Elche by 2	6.1%	7.0%	6.8%	1.02×	14.25
Elche by 3+	2.4%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.37