Athletic Club v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 5
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.36 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
53.2%
Draw
27.4%
Getafe win
19.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–0.66 | 1-0 17% | 38% | 38% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 0.36 xGGetafe 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Getafe |
Diego Rico | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
 Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 47' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Areso |
| 47' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Athletic Club |
Maroan Sannadi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 74' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Athletic Club |
Urko Izeta | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Urko Izeta |
| 92' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Williams AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Aymeric Laporte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alex Berenguer AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jesús Areso Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Íñigo Lekue DR | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maroan Sannadi Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Urko Izeta Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Mayoral FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Adrián Liso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Mauro Arambarri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Luis Milla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coba da Costa AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Javi Muñoz Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |