Athletic Club v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Athletic Club

16:00 UTC

Getafe

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 1,136h before kick-off

Athletic Club win

51.1%

model 53.8%

Draw

27.1%

model 25.5%

Getafe win

21.7%

model 20.8%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.8%
1-1 11.9%
2-0 10.8%
2-1 9.3%
0-0 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.7%	Under 2.5	56.3%
BTTS yes	45.7%	BTTS no	54.3%
Athletic Club 1+	79.0%	Athletic Club 2+	46.2%
Getafe 1+	57.9%	Getafe 2+	21.4%

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.86. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

A half without a goal

Goal in both halves · usually 45%

54.7% fair odds 1.83

moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Athletic Club not to win both halves

Win both halves · usually 88%

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Athletic Club have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Getafe have allowed 1.21.
At home Athletic Club average 1.53 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Athletic Club have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.1% for the draw and 21.7% for Getafe. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Athletic Club and 0.86 for Getafe.

Why Athletic Club

Athletic Club have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Getafe have allowed 1.21. At home Athletic Club average 1.53 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Getafe can win

Getafe have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.45. Away from home Getafe average 0.61 xG a match.

Key players

Athletic Club's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Iñaki Williams (0.41), Gorka Guruzeta (0.37), Nico Williams (0.28). Getafe's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Martín Satriano (0.40), Enes Ünal (0.31), Ramón Terrats (0.29).

Availability

1 of Athletic Club's top three contributors did not start their last match. Getafe had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. 36% of Getafe's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Getafe: Zaid Romero (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Athletic Club: 41% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Getafe: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Athletic Club are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.8%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LWLLDLLLWW last 10 scored 15 from 14.7 xG conceded 18 from 14.5 xG

Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLDWLWLWLD last 10 scored 6 from 9.3 xG conceded 11 from 12.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542521	1.56–0.86	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	522720	1.41–0.76	1-0 16%	37%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win	53.7%	52.0%	46.8%	1.11×	1.93
Draw	25.5%	27.6%	25.2%	1.10×	3.63
Getafe to win	20.8%	22.1%	28.1%	0.78×	4.53

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club & not both score	33.3%	32.8%	25.3%	1.30×	3.05
Athletic Club & both teams score	20.4%	22.6%	21.7%	1.04×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	16.6%	17.7%	20.2%	0.88×	5.64
Getafe & not both score	12.1%	12.2%	14.6%	0.83×	8.23
Draw & not both score	8.9%	7.3%	5.1%	1.44×	13.64
Getafe & both teams score	8.6%	7.3%	13.7%	0.54×	13.65

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club & over 1.5	39.9%	37.6%	34.1%	1.10×	2.66
Athletic Club & under 3.5	39.5%	37.6%	33.0%	1.14×	2.66
Athletic Club & over 2.5	29.1%	25.5%	28.0%	0.91×	3.92
Athletic Club & under 2.5	24.6%	21.5%	18.9%	1.14×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	20.8%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	20.8%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.65
Getafe & under 3.5	17.0%	17.6%	21.7%	0.81×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	16.6%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.69
Athletic Club & over 3.5	14.2%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.86
Athletic Club & under 1.5	13.8%	12.7%	12.8%	0.99×	7.86
Getafe & over 1.5	13.1%	12.7%	21.2%	0.60×	7.86
Getafe & under 2.5	10.9%	12.7%	11.6%	1.10×	7.87
Getafe & over 2.5	9.8%	7.5%	16.7%	0.45×	13.40
Draw & under 1.5	8.9%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.40
Getafe & under 1.5	7.6%	7.5%	7.1%	1.05×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.6%	5.2%	0.87×	21.91
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.6%	5.2%	0.87×	21.91
Getafe & over 3.5	3.7%	4.6%	6.6%	0.69×	21.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (1UP)	65.8%	72.0%	63.2%	1.14×	1.39
Getafe (1UP)	36.4%	38.0%	47.1%	0.81×	2.63

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2UP)	53.7%	54.0%	48.7%	1.11×	1.85
Getafe (2UP)	20.8%	21.0%	29.7%	0.71×	4.77

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win 2nd half	45.5%	44.4%	39.5%	1.12×	2.26
2nd half drawn	34.6%	33.8%	33.0%	1.03×	2.96
Getafe to win 2nd half	19.9%	20.3%	27.7%	0.73×	4.93

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (+2.5)	88.3%	89.0%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Athletic Club (+0.5)	79.2%	78.6%	71.9%	1.09×	1.27
Getafe (+1.5)	71.7%	73.0%	79.2%	0.92×	1.37
Athletic Club (-0.5)	53.7%	51.7%	46.8%	1.10×	1.94
Getafe (+0.5)	46.3%	48.3%	53.2%	0.91×	2.07
Athletic Club (-1.5)	28.3%	27.0%	20.8%	1.30×	3.71
Getafe (-0.5)	20.8%	21.4%	28.1%	0.76×	4.68
Athletic Club (-2.5)	11.7%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.10

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to concede	79.0%	76.2%	80.4%	0.95×	1.31
Getafe clean sheet	21.0%	23.8%	19.6%	1.22×	4.19

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe clean sheet in 1st half	56.9%	60.3%	51.9%	1.16×	1.66
Getafe to concede in 1st half	43.1%	39.7%	48.1%	0.83×	2.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 6.5 corners	93.1%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Getafe under 5.5 corners	86.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Getafe under 4.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Getafe under 3.5 corners	60.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Getafe over 2.5 corners	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Getafe under 2.5 corners	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Getafe over 3.5 corners	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Getafe over 4.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Getafe over 5.5 corners	13.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Getafe over 6.5 corners	6.9%	10.0%	—	—	10.00

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.4%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Getafe under 2.5 goals	94.3%	92.7%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Getafe under 1.5 goals	78.6%	75.3%	68.1%	1.11×	1.33
Getafe over 0.5 goals	57.8%	57.7%	69.7%	0.83×	1.73
Getafe under 0.5 goals	42.2%	42.3%	30.3%	1.40×	2.36
Getafe over 1.5 goals	21.4%	24.7%	31.9%	0.77×	4.05
Getafe over 2.5 goals	5.7%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.67
Getafe over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.6%	2.7%	0.97×	37.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 1.5 in 1st half	96.0%	96.1%	93.3%	1.03×	1.04
Getafe under 0.5 in 1st half	73.2%	69.1%	63.4%	1.09×	1.45
Getafe over 0.5 in 1st half	26.8%	30.9%	36.6%	0.85×	3.23
Getafe over 1.5 in 1st half	4.0%	3.9%	6.7%	0.58×	25.75

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (away no bet)	67.9%	71.7%	65.1%	1.10×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	32.1%	28.3%	34.9%	0.81×	3.53

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe even goals	58.9%	58.0%	53.9%	1.08×	1.72
Getafe odd goals	41.1%	42.0%	46.1%	0.91×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.0%	86.5%	86.9%	1.00×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.0%	13.5%	13.1%	1.03×	7.42

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.7%	55.8%	62.4%	0.89×	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.3%	44.2%	37.6%	1.18×	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.2%	52.8%	52.3%	1.01×	1.89
Athletic Club to score 2+ in a row	39.8%	37.5%	34.3%	1.09×	2.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.1%	17.8%	18.9%	0.95×	5.61
Getafe to score 2+ in a row	15.3%	17.8%	23.6%	0.75×	5.63
Athletic Club to score 3+ in a row	15.2%	17.8%	13.0%	1.37×	5.63
Getafe to score 3+ in a row	3.1%	3.4%	6.4%	0.53×	29.61

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club corners (+3.5)	96.0%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Athletic Club corners (+2.5)	92.7%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Athletic Club corners (+1.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Getafe corners (+3.5)	62.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Athletic Club corners (-1.5)	59.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Getafe corners (+2.5)	51.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Athletic Club corners (-2.5)	48.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Getafe corners (+1.5)	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Athletic Club corners (-3.5)	37.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Getafe corners (-1.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Getafe corners (-2.5)	7.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.57
Getafe corners (-3.5)	4.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.63

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.0%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	28.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	22.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.1%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	37.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	30.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.9%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.8%	11.6%	12.8%	0.90×	8.62
1-1	11.9%	11.6%	15.1%	0.77×	8.63
2-0	10.8%	11.6%	6.2%	1.86×	8.64
2-1	9.3%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.74
0-0	8.9%	7.3%	5.1%	1.43×	13.74
0-1	7.6%	7.3%	7.1%	1.03×	13.74
3-0	5.6%	7.3%	4.6%	1.58×	13.75
1-2	5.2%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.76
2-2	4.0%	1.8%	4.4%	0.41×	55.41
3-1	4.8%	1.8%	3.6%	0.50×	55.39
0-2	3.3%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.43
1-3	1.5%	1.8%	1.9%	0.97×	55.47
3-2	2.1%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.46
4-0	2.2%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.45
4-1	1.9%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.46
Any other score	2.3%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.45
0-3	1.0%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.48
0-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.50
1-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.50
2-3	1.2%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.48
2-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.50
3-3	0.6%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.49
3-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.51
4-2	0.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.49
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club leading at HT (DNB)	67.3%	67.0%	62.3%	1.08×	1.49
Getafe leading at HT (DNB)	32.7%	33.0%	37.7%	0.87×	3.03

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw (1X)	79.2%	77.9%	71.9%	1.08×	1.28
Athletic Club or Getafe (12)	74.5%	72.4%	74.8%	0.97×	1.38
Getafe or draw (X2)	46.3%	48.0%	53.2%	0.90×	2.08

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw at HT	83.4%	81.7%	78.5%	1.04×	1.22
Getafe or draw at HT	65.9%	66.2%	64.5%	1.03×	1.51
Athletic Club or Getafe at HT	50.7%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw (1UP)	79.2%	84.8%	78.2%	1.08×	1.18
Getafe or draw (1UP)	46.3%	54.9%	60.1%	0.91×	1.82

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw in 2nd half	80.1%	79.7%	72.3%	1.10×	1.25
Athletic Club or Getafe in 2nd half	65.4%	66.2%	67.0%	0.99×	1.51
Getafe or draw in 2nd half	54.5%	55.7%	60.5%	0.92×	1.80

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.9%	66.1%	62.2%	1.06×	1.51
Neither half drawn	33.1%	33.9%	37.8%	0.90×	2.95

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (DNB)	72.1%	71.3%	62.5%	1.14×	1.40
Getafe (DNB)	27.9%	28.7%	37.5%	0.76×	3.48

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score first	58.7%	62.1%	55.4%	1.12×	1.61
Getafe to score first	32.5%	31.9%	39.6%	0.80×	3.14
No goal scored	8.9%	6.3%	5.1%	1.23×	15.89

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.3%	52.9%	44.7%	1.18×	1.89
Both teams to score	45.7%	47.1%	55.3%	0.85×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.4%	42.3%	35.4%	1.20×	2.36
Both score & over 2.5	33.8%	34.5%	40.3%	0.85×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.9%	11.7%	15.1%	0.78×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.8%	9.5%	0.92×	11.42

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.1%	88.8%	86.2%	1.03×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	9.9%	11.2%	13.8%	0.81×	8.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.2%	70.5%	71.4%	0.99×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.8%	29.5%	28.6%	1.03×	3.39

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.8%	59.6%	60.3%	0.99×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.7%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	8.5%	6.5%	11.2%	0.58×	15.32
Both score in both halves	3.1%	4.8%	5.6%	0.85×	20.89

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.5%	85.6%	83.3%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.5%	14.4%	16.7%	0.86×	6.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.1%	54.7%	45.2%	1.21×	1.83
A goal in each half	45.9%	45.3%	54.8%	0.83×	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
0-1 goals	30.3%	31.5%	24.8%	1.27×	3.17
4-6 goals	21.4%	22.8%	23.4%	0.97×	4.40
7+ goals	1.2%	1.9%	2.2%	0.86×	51.86

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score exactly 0	42.2%	41.4%	30.3%	1.37×	2.41
Getafe to score exactly 1	36.4%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Getafe to score exactly 2	15.7%	18.3%	22.0%	0.83×	5.46
Getafe to score 3+	5.7%	7.6%	10.0%	0.76×	13.23

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score exactly 1	32.8%	30.6%	38.4%	0.80×	3.27
Athletic Club to score exactly 2	25.6%	27.0%	22.7%	1.19×	3.70
Athletic Club to score exactly 0	21.0%	22.9%	19.6%	1.17×	4.36
Athletic Club to score 3+	20.7%	22.9%	19.7%	1.16×	4.36

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.3%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08
Athletic Club leading at HT	34.1%	33.8%	35.5%	0.95×	2.96
Getafe leading at HT	16.6%	18.3%	21.5%	0.85×	5.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club -1: 2	46.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Athletic Club -1: 1	28.3%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Athletic Club -1: X	25.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:1)	46.3%	48.1%	53.2%	0.90×	2.08
Athletic Club (0:1)	28.3%	26.4%	20.8%	1.27×	3.79
Draw (0:1)	25.5%	26.2%	26.2%	1.00×	3.82

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:2)	71.7%	73.1%	79.2%	0.92×	1.37
Draw (0:2)	16.5%	16.3%	11.0%	1.49×	6.14
Athletic Club (0:2)	11.7%	11.7%	10.0%	1.18×	8.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:3)	88.3%	88.4%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.8%	6.9%	7.1%	0.98×	14.43
Athletic Club (0:3)	4.0%	2.3%	3.0%	0.78×	42.73

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:4)	96.0%	98.0%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.9%	1.3%	2.4%	0.53×	79.89
Athletic Club (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	0.7%	1.66×	80.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (1:0)	79.2%	78.2%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	14.1%	11.8%	17.7%	0.67×	8.46
Getafe (1:0)	6.7%	8.5%	10.6%	0.81×	11.73

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2:0)	93.3%	91.7%	89.4%	1.03×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	5.1%	6.6%	6.8%	0.96×	15.27
Getafe (2:0)	1.6%	2.7%	3.9%	0.69×	37.41

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.1%	50.9%	51.3%	0.99×	1.97
Halves equal	25.6%	26.1%	22.5%	1.16×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	21.3%	23.1%	26.3%	0.88×	4.33

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to concede	57.8%	59.7%	69.7%	0.86×	1.68
Athletic Club clean sheet	42.2%	40.3%	30.3%	1.33×	2.48

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 1st half	73.2%	68.1%	63.4%	1.07×	1.47
Athletic Club to concede in 1st half	26.8%	31.9%	36.6%	0.87×	3.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club over 2.5 corners	87.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Athletic Club over 3.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Athletic Club under 6.5 corners	64.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Athletic Club over 4.5 corners	61.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Athletic Club under 5.5 corners	52.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Athletic Club over 5.5 corners	48.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Athletic Club under 4.5 corners	38.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Athletic Club over 6.5 corners	35.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Athletic Club under 3.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Athletic Club under 2.5 corners	13.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 3.5 goals	92.7%	92.1%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals	79.3%	76.8%	80.3%	0.96×	1.30
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals	79.0%	76.8%	80.4%	0.95×	1.30
Athletic Club under 1.5 goals	53.8%	52.8%	57.8%	0.91×	1.89
Athletic Club over 1.5 goals	46.2%	47.2%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12
Athletic Club under 0.5 goals	21.0%	23.2%	19.6%	1.19×	4.31
Athletic Club over 2.5 goals	20.7%	23.2%	19.7%	1.18×	4.31
Athletic Club over 3.5 goals	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.65

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 1st half	89.0%	87.9%	86.0%	1.02×	1.14
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 1st half	56.9%	60.0%	51.9%	1.16×	1.67
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 1st half	43.1%	40.0%	48.1%	0.83×	2.50
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 1st half	11.0%	12.1%	14.0%	0.87×	8.25

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.1%	54.1%	47.2%	1.15×	1.85
Getafe (home no bet)	44.9%	45.9%	52.8%	0.87×	2.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club even goals	52.2%	50.3%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Athletic Club odd goals	47.8%	49.7%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.7%	40.5%	32.1%	1.26×	2.47
HT 1-0	23.5%	22.7%	22.7%	1.00×	4.41
HT 0-1	13.0%	11.2%	16.2%	0.69×	8.93
HT 1-1	7.3%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	13.00
HT 2-0	6.6%	7.7%	6.2%	1.23×	13.01
Any other HT score	2.4%	2.5%	4.5%	0.56×	39.87
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.5%	3.1%	0.80×	39.88
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.5%	3.2%	0.77×	39.88
HT 1-2	1.1%	2.5%	1.5%	1.67×	39.93
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.5%	1.2%	2.00×	39.98

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club at HT / Athletic Club at FT	28.7%	27.2%	26.5%	1.03×	3.68
Draw at HT / Athletic Club at FT	22.4%	21.4%	18.0%	1.19×	4.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.97
Draw at HT / Getafe at FT	9.8%	6.6%	11.5%	0.57×	15.16
Getafe at HT / Getafe at FT	9.7%	6.6%	12.9%	0.51×	15.16
Athletic Club at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.4%	5.2%	0.65×	29.34
Getafe at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.4%	6.1%	0.56×	29.34
Getafe at HT / Athletic Club at FT	2.6%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.40
Athletic Club at HT / Getafe at FT	1.2%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.46

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score last	58.7%	56.6%	55.7%	1.02×	1.77
Getafe to score last	32.5%	35.8%	39.3%	0.91×	2.79
No goal scored	8.9%	6.3%	5.1%	1.23×	15.89

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.1%	93.7%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Athletic Club to lead by 1 at any time	65.8%	70.8%	63.2%	1.12×	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.8%	42.1%	41.6%	1.01×	2.37
Getafe to lead by 1 at any time	36.4%	37.2%	47.1%	0.79×	2.69
Athletic Club to lead by 2 at any time	33.6%	32.1%	26.5%	1.21×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.9%	17.6%	16.7%	1.05×	5.67
Athletic Club to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	11.3%	12.2%	0.93×	8.81
Getafe to lead by 2 at any time	10.3%	11.3%	15.5%	0.73×	8.86
Getafe to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	2.6%	4.6%	0.56×	38.48

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club most corners	70.8%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Getafe most corners	19.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.23
Corners level	9.5%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.3%	81.5%	81.2%	1.00×	1.23
1-3 goals	68.5%	68.3%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
2-6 goals	68.5%	68.3%	73.1%	0.93×	1.46
2-5 goals	66.0%	68.3%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
2-4 goals	59.8%	58.8%	61.5%	0.96×	1.70
1-2 goals	47.5%	48.0%	45.3%	1.06×	2.08
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
3-6 goals	42.5%	43.6%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.0%	38.9%	44.0%	0.88×	2.57
3-4 goals	33.8%	34.1%	36.0%	0.95×	2.93
4-6 goals	21.4%	24.7%	23.4%	1.05×	4.05
4-5 goals	18.9%	18.1%	19.8%	0.92×	5.51
5-6 goals	8.7%	8.8%	11.7%	0.76×	11.31
7+ goals	1.2%	2.0%	2.2%	0.90×	49.82

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club never behind	54.7%	61.5%	52.9%	1.16×	1.63
Getafe never behind	25.3%	30.8%	36.8%	0.84×	3.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.1%	53.7%	0.93×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.9%	46.3%	1.08×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.7%	55.4%	53.6%	1.03×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	41.3%	44.6%	46.4%	0.96×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.3%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.1%	92.9%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	90.1%	92.9%	86.2%	1.08×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	77.4%	78.2%	74.5%	1.05×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	69.7%	65.6%	75.2%	0.87×	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	56.3%	57.7%	50.3%	1.15×	1.73
Over 2.5 goals	43.7%	42.3%	49.7%	0.85×	2.36
Under 1.5 goals	30.3%	34.4%	24.8%	1.39×	2.90
Over 3.5 goals	22.6%	21.8%	25.5%	0.85×	4.60
Over 4.5 goals	9.9%	7.1%	13.8%	0.51×	14.12
Under 0.5 goals	8.9%	7.1%	5.1%	1.38×	14.15
Over 5.5 goals	3.7%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.8%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.0%	97.2%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.7%	88.1%	84.3%	1.05×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.3%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.0%	55.5%	66.7%	0.83×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.0%	44.5%	33.3%	1.34×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.7%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.3%	11.9%	15.7%	0.76×	8.43
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.0%	2.8%	6.4%	0.44×	35.84
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.2%	2.8%	2.3%	1.19×	36.27

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.1%	92.3%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	78.2%	78.1%	70.8%	1.10×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	60.2%	67.9%	0.89×	1.66
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	39.8%	32.1%	1.24×	2.51
Over 1.5 in 1st half	21.8%	21.9%	29.2%	0.75×	4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.9%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.98

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	80.3%	79.7%	1.01×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	80.3%	81.8%	0.98×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.8%	51.8%	46.3%	1.12×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.2%	48.2%	53.7%	0.90×	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	19.7%	18.2%	1.08×	5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	19.7%	20.4%	0.97×	5.08

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe not to score in both halves	88.6%	84.6%	81.4%	1.04×	1.18
Athletic Club not to score in both halves	72.8%	70.4%	73.7%	0.96×	1.42
Athletic Club to score in both halves	27.2%	29.6%	26.3%	1.12×	3.38
Getafe to score in both halves	11.4%	15.4%	18.6%	0.83×	6.49

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	45.7%	49.4%	55.3%	0.89×	2.02
Only Athletic Club scores	33.3%	36.1%	25.3%	1.43×	2.77
Only Getafe scores	12.1%	10.8%	14.6%	0.74×	9.26
Neither team scores	8.9%	6.7%	5.1%	1.31×	14.98

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.0%	24.7%	25.7%	0.96×	4.05
Exactly 1 goals	21.5%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	21.0%	21.5%	24.3%	0.89×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	12.7%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.09
Exactly 0 goals	8.9%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.12
Exactly 5 goals	6.2%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.7%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.92

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.8%	50.8%	46.3%	1.10×	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	32.9%	33.2%	35.6%	0.93×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	21.2%	18.5%	18.2%	1.01×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe not to win both halves	96.7%	96.7%	94.6%	1.02×	1.03
Athletic Club not to win both halves	84.5%	83.0%	88.1%	0.94×	1.21
Athletic Club to win both halves	15.5%	17.0%	11.9%	1.43×	5.88
Getafe to win both halves	3.3%	3.3%	5.4%	0.62×	30.03

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to win neither half	66.8%	67.2%	56.2%	1.20×	1.49
Athletic Club to win either half	64.1%	63.7%	63.0%	1.01×	1.57
Athletic Club to win neither half	35.9%	36.3%	37.0%	0.98×	2.75
Getafe to win either half	33.2%	32.8%	43.8%	0.75×	3.05

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe not to win to nil	87.9%	88.3%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Athletic Club not to win to nil	66.7%	64.7%	74.7%	0.87×	1.55
Athletic Club to win to nil	33.3%	35.3%	25.3%	1.39×	2.84
Getafe to win to nil	12.1%	11.7%	14.6%	0.80×	8.54

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club by 1	25.5%	28.0%	26.2%	1.07×	3.57
Draw	25.5%	28.0%	25.2%	1.11×	3.57
Athletic Club by 2	16.5%	17.0%	11.0%	1.55×	5.89
Getafe by 1	14.1%	11.9%	17.7%	0.67×	8.42
Athletic Club by 3+	11.7%	11.8%	10.0%	1.19×	8.44
Getafe by 2	5.1%	7.1%	6.8%	1.03×	14.16
Getafe by 3+	1.6%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.55