Athletic Club v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 23 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 6
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.05 – +0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
64.5%
Draw
19.9%
Girona win
15.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–0.69 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–0.80 | 2-0 12% | 53% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 2.05 xGGirona 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 8' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 9' |
 Athletic Club |
Mikel Vesga | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Girona |
Donny van de Beek | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladyslav Vanat |
| 15' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gorka Guruzeta |
| 25' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 33' |
Athletic Club |
Aymeric Laporte | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nicolás Serrano |
| 34' |
Athletic Club |
Nicolás Serrano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 44' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 47' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Athletic Club |
Jesús Areso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 60' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jesús Areso |
| 63' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Rincón |
| 68' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 69' |
Athletic Club |
Aitor Paredes | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 73' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 82' |
Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Berenguer |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.07 | 0.91 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Iñaki Williams AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Aymeric Laporte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.68 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Nicolás Serrano AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Mikel Vesga DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Adama Boiro DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alex Berenguer Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| Jesús Areso Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yuri Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.84 |
| Alejandro Francés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.78 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AMR | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.67 |
| Jhon Solis DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Portu Sub | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Donny van de Beek AMC | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnau Martinez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lancinet Kourouma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |