Athletic Club v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 25 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 6
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 2
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.69 – -0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
57.0%
Draw
23.1%
Rayo Vallecano win
19.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–0.93 | 1-0 12% | 52% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 1.69 xGRayo Vallecano 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maroan Sannadi |
| 18' |
Athletic Club |
Maroan Sannadi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yuri |
| 33' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 40' |
Athletic Club |
Maroan Sannadi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jesús Areso |
| 40' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Williams |
| 42' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Williams |
| 54' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 57' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta |
| 61' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 65' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fran Pérez |
| 94' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beñat Prados |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Jesús Areso DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Nico Williams AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| Alex Berenguer AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Iñaki Williams AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
| Maroan Sannadi FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Oihan Sancet Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Beñat Prados Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Gorka Guruzeta Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Álvaro García ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pathé Ciss MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Luiz Felipe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Isi Palazón MR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pedro Díaz AMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Randy Nteka Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |