Athletic Club v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Athletic Club

16:00 UTC

Real Sociedad

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 173h before kick-off

Athletic Club win

53.5%

model 52.9%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.0%

Real Sociedad win

23.2%

model 23.1%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
1-0 11.0%
2-1 9.7%
2-0 9.4%
0-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.4%	Under 2.5	48.6%
BTTS yes	52.7%	BTTS no	47.3%
Athletic Club 1+	81.7%	Athletic Club 2+	50.6%
Real Sociedad 1+	64.5%	Real Sociedad 2+	27.7%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Athletic Club or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 72%

77.3% fair odds 1.29

moderate signal · 1708 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Athletic Club have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.92.
At home Athletic Club average 2.16 xG a match.

Risk factors

Real Sociedad have scored 2.80 a match from 1.45 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Athletic Club have an estimated 53.5% win probability, against 23.2% for the draw and 23.2% for Real Sociedad. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Athletic Club and 1.03 for Real Sociedad.

Why Athletic Club

Athletic Club have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.92. At home Athletic Club average 2.16 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Real Sociedad can win

Real Sociedad carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1501. Real Sociedad have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.40. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Away from home Real Sociedad average 1.48 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Athletic Club's 11. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Athletic Club were missing 1.14 expected goal involvements a match against 0.63.

Key players

Athletic Club's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Iñaki Williams (0.40), Gorka Guruzeta (0.36), Nico Williams (0.28). Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.50), Orri Óskarsson (0.36), Carlos Soler (0.23).

Availability

3 of Athletic Club's top three contributors did not start their last match. Athletic Club had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.09 expected goal involvements a match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Athletic Club: 57% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Real Sociedad: 47% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Athletic Club's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Athletic Club are the model's most likely outcome at 53.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Athletic Club are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLLLWWDDDL last 10 scored 11 from 17.9 xG conceded 14 from 14.1 xG

Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DLLWDWLWWW last 10 scored 18 from 14.5 xG conceded 18 from 19.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	532423	1.70–1.04	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542423	1.75–1.05	1-1 11%	53%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win	54.7%	51.5%	46.4%	1.11×	1.94
Real Sociedad to win	22.8%	24.5%	28.4%	0.86×	4.09
Draw	22.5%	24.5%	25.4%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club & both teams score	27.4%	25.2%	21.7%	1.16×	3.97
Athletic Club & not both score	27.3%	25.2%	24.8%	1.02×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Real Sociedad & both teams score	12.4%	13.3%	14.1%	0.94×	7.54
Real Sociedad & not both score	10.4%	13.3%	14.4%	0.92×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	5.3%	0.93×	20.51

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club & over 1.5	45.4%	45.0%	33.9%	1.33×	2.22
Athletic Club & over 2.5	36.8%	34.9%	28.0%	1.24×	2.87
Athletic Club & under 3.5	33.2%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Athletic Club & over 3.5	21.5%	21.6%	14.1%	1.53×	4.63
Athletic Club & under 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	18.5%	0.98×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Real Sociedad & over 1.5	17.2%	18.0%	21.5%	0.84×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.4%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Real Sociedad & under 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Real Sociedad & over 2.5	14.0%	12.8%	17.2%	0.75×	7.79
Athletic Club & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Real Sociedad & under 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	11.3%	0.70×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.1%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.63
Real Sociedad & over 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	7.1%	1.11×	12.63
Real Sociedad & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (1UP)	69.2%	70.3%	62.8%	1.12×	1.42
Real Sociedad (1UP)	41.8%	38.6%	47.2%	0.82×	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2UP)	54.7%	55.2%	48.1%	1.15×	1.81
Real Sociedad (2UP)	22.8%	23.7%	30.0%	0.79×	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win 2nd half	43.7%	41.9%	39.6%	1.06×	2.39
2nd half drawn	33.6%	34.1%	32.9%	1.04×	2.93
Real Sociedad to win 2nd half	22.7%	24.1%	27.6%	0.87×	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	86.8%	84.2%	1.03×	1.15
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	52.7%	47.8%	1.10×	1.90
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	47.3%	52.2%	0.91×	2.11
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	13.2%	15.8%	0.84×	7.55

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.9%	74.4%	79.6%	0.93×	1.35
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.9%	62.9%	59.1%	1.06×	1.59
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.1%	37.1%	40.9%	0.91×	2.70
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.1%	25.6%	20.4%	1.26×	3.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (+2.5)	85.3%	88.5%	89.8%	0.98×	1.13
Athletic Club (+0.5)	77.2%	78.5%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Real Sociedad (+1.5)	68.6%	68.7%	79.3%	0.87×	1.46
Athletic Club (-0.5)	54.7%	52.4%	46.4%	1.13×	1.91
Real Sociedad (+0.5)	45.3%	47.6%	53.6%	0.89×	2.10
Athletic Club (-1.5)	31.4%	31.3%	20.7%	1.51×	3.19
Real Sociedad (-0.5)	22.8%	21.5%	28.4%	0.76×	4.65
Athletic Club (-2.5)	14.7%	11.5%	10.2%	1.14×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede	84.7%	81.6%	80.5%	1.01×	1.23
Real Sociedad clean sheet	15.3%	18.4%	19.5%	0.94×	5.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede in 1st half	57.5%	57.0%	47.7%	1.20×	1.75
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 1st half	42.5%	43.0%	52.3%	0.82×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to concede in 2nd half	63.9%	61.4%	59.1%	1.04×	1.63
Real Sociedad clean sheet in 2nd half	36.1%	38.6%	40.9%	0.94×	2.59

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 6.5 corners	82.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Real Sociedad over 2.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Sociedad under 5.5 corners	72.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Sociedad under 4.5 corners	59.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad over 3.5 corners	57.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Sociedad under 3.5 corners	42.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners	41.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Real Sociedad over 5.5 corners	27.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Real Sociedad under 2.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Real Sociedad over 6.5 corners	17.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 3.5 goals	97.2%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals	89.4%	87.8%	89.4%	0.98×	1.14
Real Sociedad under 1.5 goals	68.7%	68.0%	67.9%	1.00×	1.47
Real Sociedad over 0.5 goals	67.8%	68.0%	70.1%	0.97×	1.47
Real Sociedad under 0.5 goals	32.2%	32.0%	29.9%	1.07×	3.13
Real Sociedad over 1.5 goals	31.3%	32.0%	32.1%	1.00×	3.13
Real Sociedad over 2.5 goals	10.6%	12.2%	10.6%	1.15×	8.21
Real Sociedad over 3.5 goals	2.8%	2.5%	2.9%	0.86×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 1st half	91.3%	93.8%	92.7%	1.01×	1.07
Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 1st half	61.3%	63.3%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 1st half	38.7%	36.7%	36.8%	1.00×	2.72
Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 1st half	8.7%	6.2%	7.3%	0.86×	16.02

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad scores equally in both	43.2%	43.5%	41.6%	1.05×	2.30
Real Sociedad scores more in 2nd half	33.4%	33.3%	37.7%	0.88×	3.01
Real Sociedad scores more in 1st half	23.4%	21.8%	20.8%	1.05×	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (away no bet)	70.8%	68.3%	64.7%	1.06×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.2%	31.7%	35.3%	0.90×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad even goals	55.2%	56.9%	53.2%	1.07×	1.76
Real Sociedad odd goals	44.8%	43.1%	46.8%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.7%	82.7%	85.8%	0.96×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.3%	17.3%	14.2%	1.22×	5.79

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.2%	68.5%	62.5%	1.10×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.8%	31.5%	37.5%	0.84×	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.9%	59.9%	52.6%	1.14×	1.67
Athletic Club to score 2+ in a row	47.3%	46.1%	34.5%	1.34×	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.0%	25.0%	19.2%	1.30×	4.00
Real Sociedad to score 2+ in a row	21.9%	19.6%	23.9%	0.82×	5.10
Athletic Club to score 3+ in a row	20.1%	19.6%	13.1%	1.49×	5.11
Real Sociedad to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.5%	6.6%	0.84×	18.24

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club corners (+3.5)	91.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Athletic Club corners (+2.5)	87.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Athletic Club corners (+1.5)	80.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Real Sociedad corners (+3.5)	68.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Real Sociedad corners (+2.5)	58.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Athletic Club corners (-1.5)	52.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Real Sociedad corners (+1.5)	48.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Athletic Club corners (-2.5)	41.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Athletic Club corners (-3.5)	31.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Real Sociedad corners (-1.5)	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Real Sociedad corners (-2.5)	13.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Real Sociedad corners (-3.5)	8.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	35.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	64.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	64.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	44.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	35.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	35.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	26.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.5%	11.5%	15.2%	0.76×	8.72
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.51
2-0	8.7%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-1	5.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
1-2	5.9%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	4.2%	1.76×	13.51
3-0	5.4%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.51
3-1	6.2%	7.4%	3.6%	2.04×	13.51
0-0	4.9%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.29
Any other score	4.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.29
0-2	3.2%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.10×	58.32
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.67×	58.32
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.94×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.63×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.89×	58.32
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.30
4-1	2.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.30
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.45×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	14.68×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2nd half DNB)	65.8%	66.6%	58.9%	1.13×	1.50
Real Sociedad (2nd half DNB)	34.2%	33.4%	41.1%	0.81×	2.99

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club leading at HT (DNB)	67.9%	74.3%	61.5%	1.21×	1.35
Real Sociedad leading at HT (DNB)	32.1%	25.7%	38.5%	0.67×	3.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or Real Sociedad (12)	77.5%	75.5%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Athletic Club or draw (1X)	77.2%	75.5%	71.6%	1.05×	1.32
Real Sociedad or draw (X2)	45.3%	48.5%	53.6%	0.90×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw at HT	80.2%	83.8%	78.1%	1.07×	1.19
Athletic Club or Real Sociedad at HT	61.9%	60.9%	56.8%	1.07×	1.64
Real Sociedad or draw at HT	58.0%	57.7%	65.0%	0.89×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw (1UP)	77.2%	83.7%	78.0%	1.07×	1.19
Real Sociedad or draw (1UP)	45.3%	53.2%	60.3%	0.88×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw in 2nd half	77.3%	75.9%	72.4%	1.05×	1.32
Athletic Club or Real Sociedad in 2nd half	66.4%	65.9%	67.1%	0.98×	1.52
Real Sociedad or draw in 2nd half	56.3%	58.1%	60.4%	0.96×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.8%	62.1%	0.95×	1.70
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.2%	37.9%	1.09×	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (DNB)	70.6%	71.3%	62.0%	1.15×	1.40
Real Sociedad (DNB)	29.4%	28.7%	38.0%	0.76×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score first	59.3%	62.3%	55.2%	1.13×	1.61
Real Sociedad to score first	35.8%	32.7%	39.7%	0.82×	3.06
No goal scored	4.9%	4.4%	5.3%	0.83×	22.91

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	55.0%	55.8%	0.99×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.6%	45.0%	44.2%	1.02×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.9%	44.4%	40.8%	1.09×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.6%	34.5%	34.8%	0.99×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	11.0%	12.4%	9.5%	1.31×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.5%	12.4%	15.2%	0.81×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.5%	82.6%	85.9%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.5%	17.4%	14.1%	1.23×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.7%	67.2%	70.7%	0.95×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.3%	32.8%	29.3%	1.12×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.2%	54.6%	59.7%	0.91×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	23.6%	21.0%	23.8%	0.88×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	15.5%	15.0%	11.1%	1.34×	6.69
Both score in both halves	6.8%	6.8%	5.6%	1.21×	14.69

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.7%	81.2%	83.4%	0.97×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.3%	18.8%	16.6%	1.13×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.9%	57.1%	55.2%	1.04×	1.75
A half without a goal	40.1%	42.9%	44.8%	0.96×	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.2%	49.3%	0.86×	2.37
4-6 goals	32.1%	30.7%	23.7%	1.30×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.8%	20.2%	24.7%	0.82×	4.94
7+ goals	3.4%	1.8%	2.6%	0.72×	54.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	38.1%	0.94×	2.78
Real Sociedad to score exactly 0	32.2%	33.8%	29.9%	1.13×	2.96
Real Sociedad to score exactly 2	20.7%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.49
Real Sociedad to score 3+	10.6%	12.9%	10.6%	1.21×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score 3+	29.0%	26.6%	19.7%	1.35×	3.77
Athletic Club to score exactly 1	28.8%	26.6%	38.3%	0.69×	3.77
Athletic Club to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Athletic Club to score exactly 0	15.3%	18.7%	19.5%	0.96×	5.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club leading at HT	42.0%	42.3%	35.0%	1.21×	2.36
Draw at HT	38.1%	39.1%	43.2%	0.90×	2.56
Real Sociedad leading at HT	19.8%	16.2%	21.9%	0.74×	6.18

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club -1: 2	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Athletic Club -1: 1	31.4%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Athletic Club -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:1)	45.3%	46.1%	53.6%	0.86×	2.17
Athletic Club (0:1)	31.4%	30.0%	20.7%	1.45×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:2)	68.6%	72.3%	79.3%	0.91×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.7%	15.3%	10.6%	1.44×	6.55
Athletic Club (0:2)	14.7%	11.0%	10.2%	1.08×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:3)	85.3%	90.6%	89.8%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.0%	5.8%	7.1%	0.82×	17.20
Athletic Club (0:3)	5.7%	5.8%	3.2%	1.84×	17.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (0:4)	94.3%	94.6%	96.8%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.8%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	81.74
Athletic Club (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	0.9%	1.31×	81.96

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (1:0)	77.2%	78.6%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.1%	12.7%	17.5%	0.73×	7.87
Real Sociedad (1:0)	8.7%	6.9%	11.0%	0.63×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (2:0)	91.3%	94.0%	89.0%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.1%	6.4%	7.0%	0.91×	15.69
Real Sociedad (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	4.1%	0.56×	43.72

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.0%	46.4%	51.3%	0.90×	2.16
1st half highest scoring	31.1%	27.9%	25.8%	1.08×	3.59
Halves equal	23.9%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to concede	67.8%	66.7%	70.1%	0.95×	1.50
Athletic Club clean sheet	32.2%	33.3%	29.9%	1.11×	3.01

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 1st half	61.3%	63.2%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Athletic Club to concede in 1st half	38.7%	36.8%	36.8%	1.00×	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 2nd half	52.6%	52.8%	47.8%	1.11×	1.89
Athletic Club to concede in 2nd half	47.4%	47.2%	52.2%	0.90×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club over 2.5 corners	88.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Athletic Club over 3.5 corners	78.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Athletic Club over 4.5 corners	65.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Athletic Club under 6.5 corners	60.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Athletic Club over 5.5 corners	52.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Athletic Club under 5.5 corners	47.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Athletic Club over 6.5 corners	39.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Athletic Club under 4.5 corners	34.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Athletic Club under 3.5 corners	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Athletic Club under 2.5 corners	11.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 3.5 goals	87.9%	87.3%	92.4%	0.94×	1.15
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals	84.7%	82.2%	80.5%	1.02×	1.22
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals	71.0%	74.2%	80.3%	0.92×	1.35
Athletic Club over 1.5 goals	55.9%	58.6%	42.3%	1.39×	1.71
Athletic Club under 1.5 goals	44.1%	41.4%	57.7%	0.72×	2.42
Athletic Club over 2.5 goals	29.0%	25.8%	19.7%	1.31×	3.88
Athletic Club under 0.5 goals	15.3%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.63
Athletic Club over 3.5 goals	12.1%	12.7%	7.6%	1.68×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 1st half	78.8%	77.2%	85.8%	0.90×	1.30
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 1st half	57.5%	56.9%	47.7%	1.19×	1.76
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 1st half	42.5%	43.1%	52.3%	0.82×	2.32
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 1st half	21.2%	22.8%	14.2%	1.61×	4.38

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club scores more in 2nd half	38.4%	37.8%	40.4%	0.94×	2.64
Athletic Club scores equally in both	31.9%	33.2%	32.2%	1.03×	3.01
Athletic Club scores more in 1st half	29.7%	27.9%	27.5%	1.01×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad (home no bet)	50.3%	51.4%	52.8%	0.97×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.7%	48.6%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club even goals	51.2%	50.7%	47.4%	1.07×	1.97
Athletic Club odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.0%	28.4%	32.2%	0.88×	3.52
HT 1-0	22.3%	24.3%	22.0%	1.10×	4.11
HT 0-1	12.7%	11.0%	16.0%	0.68×	9.10
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	10.1%	1.09×	9.12
HT 2-0	9.5%	6.9%	6.7%	1.04×	14.43
Any other HT score	6.9%	6.9%	4.5%	1.55×	14.47
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.4%	3.0%	0.78×	41.90
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	3.6%	0.66×	42.00
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.4%	1.6%	1.45×	42.03
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	1.2%	2.03×	42.13

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club at HT / Athletic Club at FT	35.1%	40.7%	26.2%	1.55×	2.46
Draw at HT / Athletic Club at FT	16.7%	16.8%	17.9%	0.94×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.8%	12.6%	14.1%	0.90×	7.91
Real Sociedad at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	12.4%	12.6%	13.2%	0.96×	7.91
Draw at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	8.7%	6.1%	11.5%	0.53×	16.40
Athletic Club at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	5.2%	1.18×	16.50
Real Sociedad at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	6.3%	0.55×	28.80
Real Sociedad at HT / Athletic Club at FT	2.9%	3.5%	2.6%	1.34×	28.86
Athletic Club at HT / Real Sociedad at FT	1.8%	3.5%	3.9%	0.90×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score last	59.3%	56.5%	54.9%	1.03×	1.77
Real Sociedad to score last	35.8%	38.6%	39.9%	0.97×	2.59
No goal scored	4.9%	4.4%	5.3%	0.83×	22.91

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.1%	95.6%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Athletic Club to lead by 1 at any time	69.2%	69.5%	62.8%	1.11×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.4%	50.8%	41.9%	1.21×	1.97
Real Sociedad to lead by 1 at any time	41.8%	39.2%	47.2%	0.83×	2.55
Athletic Club to lead by 2 at any time	38.6%	34.7%	26.5%	1.31×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.5%	19.5%	17.2%	1.14×	5.12
Athletic Club to lead by 3 at any time	17.6%	14.9%	12.4%	1.20×	6.72
Real Sociedad to lead by 2 at any time	14.1%	10.5%	15.8%	0.67×	9.48
Real Sociedad to lead by 3 at any time	3.9%	1.6%	4.9%	0.33×	61.20

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club most corners	62.5%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Real Sociedad most corners	27.8%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.7%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.8%	78.7%	72.9%	1.08×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.5%	78.7%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.7%	72.3%	69.3%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.3%	61.1%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.6%	59.1%	68.7%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.5%	53.2%	47.7%	1.12×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.4%	48.5%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	49.3%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.2%	35.9%	1.09×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.2%	39.2%	44.7%	0.88×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.1%	35.2%	23.7%	1.48×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.0%	30.2%	20.1%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.2%	18.8%	11.9%	1.58×	5.31
7+ goals	3.4%	2.6%	2.6%	1.00×	39.10

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club never behind	53.3%	62.4%	52.8%	1.18×	1.60
Real Sociedad never behind	25.9%	29.9%	37.2%	0.80×	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.8%	54.5%	0.95×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.2%	45.6%	1.06×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	49.3%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	50.7%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	93.8%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.4%	82.3%	85.6%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.2%	82.3%	75.4%	1.09×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.5%	61.8%	73.8%	0.84×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.9%	58.6%	50.1%	1.17×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.1%	41.4%	49.9%	0.83×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.5%	38.2%	26.2%	1.46×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	19.8%	17.7%	24.7%	0.72×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.6%	17.7%	14.4%	1.23×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	6.2%	1.25×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.4%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.6%	92.4%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.6%	75.9%	83.7%	0.91×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.5%	72.4%	67.0%	1.08×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.3%	51.9%	65.6%	0.79×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.7%	48.1%	34.4%	1.40×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.5%	27.6%	33.0%	0.84×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.4%	24.1%	16.3%	1.48×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.4%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.6%	2.8%	2.7%	1.05×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.6%	85.9%	90.0%	0.95×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.0%	71.5%	67.8%	1.05×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.1%	63.1%	70.0%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.9%	36.9%	30.0%	1.23×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.0%	28.5%	32.2%	0.89×	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.4%	14.1%	10.0%	1.42×	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	82.9%	82.1%	1.01×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.7%	79.7%	79.0%	1.01×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	53.2%	53.3%	1.00×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	46.8%	46.7%	1.00×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.3%	20.3%	21.0%	0.97×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	17.1%	17.9%	0.95×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad not to score in both halves	81.6%	84.2%	81.0%	1.04×	1.19
Athletic Club not to score in both halves	63.2%	63.3%	73.7%	0.86×	1.58
Athletic Club to score in both halves	36.8%	36.7%	26.3%	1.39×	2.72
Real Sociedad to score in both halves	18.4%	15.8%	19.0%	0.84×	6.31

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.4%	58.7%	55.8%	1.05×	1.71
Only Athletic Club scores	27.3%	26.0%	24.8%	1.05×	3.84
Only Real Sociedad scores	10.4%	11.0%	14.4%	0.77×	9.07
Neither team scores	4.9%	4.6%	5.3%	0.88×	21.58

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	22.3%	22.6%	25.4%	0.89×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.9%	17.5%	11.9%	1.47×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.9%	12.1%	19.5%	0.62×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	8.3%	1.46×	8.25
6 or more goals	8.5%	7.6%	6.2%	1.23×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.9%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.34

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	37.3%	37.9%	0.98×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.0%	28.5%	32.2%	0.88×	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	15.4%	15.5%	10.0%	1.56×	6.44

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.5%	44.9%	46.7%	0.96×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.5%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	19.0%	16.7%	17.9%	0.93×	5.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad not to win both halves	95.5%	97.2%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Athletic Club not to win both halves	81.6%	83.7%	88.1%	0.95×	1.19
Athletic Club to win both halves	18.4%	16.3%	11.9%	1.36×	6.15
Real Sociedad to win both halves	4.5%	2.8%	5.4%	0.53×	35.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win either half	67.4%	67.7%	62.6%	1.08×	1.48
Real Sociedad to win neither half	62.0%	64.9%	55.9%	1.16×	1.54
Real Sociedad to win either half	38.0%	35.1%	44.1%	0.79×	2.85
Athletic Club to win neither half	32.6%	32.3%	37.4%	0.86×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Sociedad not to win to nil	89.6%	88.1%	85.6%	1.03×	1.14
Athletic Club not to win to nil	72.7%	75.3%	75.2%	1.00×	1.33
Athletic Club to win to nil	27.3%	24.7%	24.8%	1.00×	4.06
Real Sociedad to win to nil	10.4%	11.9%	14.4%	0.83×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club by 1	23.3%	24.1%	25.8%	0.93×	4.15
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Athletic Club by 2	16.7%	17.0%	10.6%	1.60×	5.87
Athletic Club by 3+	14.7%	11.8%	10.2%	1.16×	8.51
Real Sociedad by 1	14.1%	11.8%	17.5%	0.67×	8.51
Real Sociedad by 2	6.1%	7.2%	7.0%	1.03×	13.91
Real Sociedad by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	4.1%	0.66×	36.85