Athletic Club v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.91
Goals − xG
-0.94 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
46.4%
Draw
27.0%
Valencia win
26.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLWWDDD last 10
scored 10
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 13.1 xG
Valencia are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLLLLWLDD last 10
scored 9
from 11.5 xG
conceded 16
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.02 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 0.94 xGValencia 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 13' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Valencia |
Eray Cömert | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 26' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.74 | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 28' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 42' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 51' |
Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 53' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 54' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 59' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 59' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | Luis Rioja |
| 74' |
Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 80' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 88' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 94' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| Yeray Álvarez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Rego DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Navarro AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Iñaki Williams Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Aymeric Laporte DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani Vivian Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nico Williams AML | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alex Berenguer Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Rioja AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Renzo Saravia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guido Rodríguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Guerra AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Diego López AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pepelu DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Filip Ugrinic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Unai Núñez Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |