Athletic Club v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 12
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.32 – +0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Athletic Club win
32.8%
Draw
27.4%
Villarreal win
39.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.23 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Athletic Club 1.32 xGVillarreal 1.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Athletic Club attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Villarreal |
Alfon | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Cardona |
| 10' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 10' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 16' |
 Athletic Club |
Yuri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Williams |
| 25' |
Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tani Oluwaseyi |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Alfon |
| 37' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Athletic Club |
Yuri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iñaki Williams |
| 45' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 47' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dani Vivian |
| 48' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Alfon | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 58' |
Villarreal |
Alfon | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Comesaña |
| 59' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 60' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Williams |
| 60' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Athletic Club |
Aymeric Laporte | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta |
| 70' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Cardona |
| 73' |
Athletic Club |
Alejandro Rego | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Athletic Club |
Nicolás Serrano | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gorka Guruzeta |
| 83' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yuri |
| 83' |
Athletic Club |
Nicolás Serrano | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.07 | 0.75 |
| Aymeric Laporte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Iñaki Williams AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Nico Williams AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Íñigo Lekue DR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Andoni Gorosabel Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Alejandro Rego Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alex Berenguer Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolás Serrano Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.49 |
| Gerard Moreno FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alfon ML | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.02 | 1.07 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi FW | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| Pau Navarro DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Rafa Marín Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nicolas Pepe Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Georges Mikautadze Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Alberto Moleiro Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |