Athletico-PR v Vasco da Gama — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Athletico-PR

20:00 UTC

Vasco da Gama

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 273h before kick-off

Athletico-PR win

60.5%

model 61.7%

Draw

21.6%

model 22.0%

Vasco da Gama win

17.9%

model 16.3%

602218

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.4%
2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 8.7%
3-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.6%	Under 2.5	40.4%
BTTS yes	56.2%	BTTS no	43.8%
Athletico-PR 1+	87.7%	Athletico-PR 2+	61.8%
Vasco da Gama 1+	63.1%	Vasco da Gama 2+	26.3%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

73/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Athletico-PR over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 46%

62.7% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 918 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Athletico-PR carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1436.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Athletico-PR have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 17.9% for Vasco da Gama. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.09 for Athletico-PR and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

Why Athletico-PR

Athletico-PR carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1436. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Vasco da Gama can win

Nothing in the data singles out Vasco da Gama.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Athletico-PR, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vasco da Gama, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Athletico-PR: 43% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 21.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vasco da Gama: 50% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Athletico-PR are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. Confidence 73/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	622216	2.09–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	691912	2.34–0.89	2-0 11%	63%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to win	69.0%	64.9%	48.9%	1.33×	1.54
Draw	19.1%	19.4%	27.3%	0.71×	5.15
Vasco da Gama to win	11.9%	13.5%	24.0%	0.56×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR & not both score	36.4%	33.3%	28.1%	1.19×	3.00
Athletico-PR & both teams score	32.6%	29.6%	21.0%	1.41×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	14.4%	13.3%	20.8%	0.64×	7.53
Vasco da Gama & both teams score	6.9%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	12.01
Vasco da Gama & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	13.8%	0.35×	20.55
Draw & not both score	4.7%	4.9%	6.7%	0.73×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR & over 1.5	60.5%	54.6%	36.7%	1.49×	1.83
Athletico-PR & over 2.5	49.6%	45.1%	27.5%	1.64×	2.22
Athletico-PR & under 3.5	37.5%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Athletico-PR & over 3.5	31.5%	30.8%	12.2%	2.52×	3.25
Athletico-PR & under 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.4%	12.8%	20.8%	0.62×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	20.2%	0.64×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.7%	12.8%	20.2%	0.64×	7.79
Vasco da Gama & over 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.63
Athletico-PR & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.63
Vasco da Gama & over 2.5	7.5%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.63
Vasco da Gama & under 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	18.6%	0.43×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.7%	4.8%	6.7%	0.72×	20.81
Vasco da Gama & under 2.5	4.3%	4.8%	11.0%	0.44×	20.81
Vasco da Gama & over 3.5	3.4%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.82
Vasco da Gama & under 1.5	2.8%	4.8%	7.0%	0.69×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (1UP)	79.7%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Vasco da Gama (1UP)	30.0%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (2UP)	69.0%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Vasco da Gama (2UP)	11.9%	14.0%	—	—	7.16

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to win 2nd half	56.3%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
2nd half drawn	29.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Vasco da Gama to win 2nd half	14.6%	11.5%	—	—	8.66

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.0%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.7%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 2nd half	41.3%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.0%	12.8%	—	—	7.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Athletico-PR under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Athletico-PR over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.4%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Athletico-PR under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (+0.5)	88.1%	88.5%	76.0%	1.16×	1.13
Vasco da Gama (+2.5)	73.8%	73.7%	90.8%	0.81×	1.36
Athletico-PR (-0.5)	69.0%	68.7%	48.9%	1.40×	1.46
Vasco da Gama (+1.5)	53.2%	52.4%	76.8%	0.68×	1.91
Athletico-PR (-1.5)	46.8%	47.6%	23.2%	2.05×	2.10
Vasco da Gama (+0.5)	31.0%	31.3%	51.1%	0.61×	3.19
Athletico-PR (-2.5)	26.2%	26.3%	9.2%	2.86×	3.80
Vasco da Gama (-0.5)	11.9%	11.5%	24.0%	0.48×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede	90.3%	91.8%	79.7%	1.15×	1.09
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	9.7%	8.2%	20.3%	0.41×	12.14

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 1st half	63.4%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 1st half	36.6%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 2nd half	73.6%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 2nd half	26.4%	28.9%	—	—	3.47

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners	78.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Vasco da Gama under 6.5 corners	74.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 corners	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vasco da Gama under 4.5 corners	50.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Vasco da Gama over 4.5 corners	49.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 corners	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vasco da Gama over 5.5 corners	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vasco da Gama over 6.5 corners	25.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 corners	22.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals	77.7%	76.3%	71.9%	1.06×	1.31
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 goals	58.9%	59.4%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 goals	41.1%	40.6%	34.6%	1.17×	2.46
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 goals	22.3%	23.7%	28.1%	0.85×	4.21
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.07
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 1st half	95.0%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 1st half	70.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 1st half	29.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.16
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 1st half	5.0%	4.1%	—	—	24.17

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama scores equally in both	49.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.09
Vasco da Gama scores more in 2nd half	31.5%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Vasco da Gama scores more in 1st half	19.2%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (away no bet)	78.3%	73.6%	64.2%	1.15×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	21.7%	26.4%	35.8%	0.74×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama even goals	58.5%	57.0%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Vasco da Gama odd goals	41.5%	43.0%	45.1%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.1%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.9%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Athletico-PR to score 2+ in a row	60.8%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	34.1%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Athletico-PR to score 3+ in a row	31.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Vasco da Gama to score 2+ in a row	13.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Vasco da Gama to score 3+ in a row	2.5%	2.6%	—	—	39.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama corners (+3.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Athletico-PR corners (+3.5)	80.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Vasco da Gama corners (+2.5)	75.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Athletico-PR corners (+2.5)	73.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Vasco da Gama corners (+1.5)	66.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Athletico-PR corners (+1.5)	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vasco da Gama corners (-1.5)	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Athletico-PR corners (-1.5)	33.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Vasco da Gama corners (-2.5)	27.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Athletico-PR corners (-2.5)	24.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Vasco da Gama corners (-3.5)	19.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Athletico-PR corners (-3.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	28.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	33.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.9%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.72
1-0	8.5%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.51
1-1	9.0%	7.4%	13.7%	0.54×	13.51
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.50
3-0	8.5%	7.4%	4.8%	1.56×	13.51
Any other score	9.0%	7.4%	2.5%	2.92×	13.51
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	4.0%	1.87×	13.51
4-0	4.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.29
0-0	4.7%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	58.29
0-1	2.8%	1.7%	7.0%	0.25×	58.30
0-2	1.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-2	3.7%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.30
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-1	4.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.29
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (2nd half DNB)	79.4%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Vasco da Gama (2nd half DNB)	20.6%	19.7%	—	—	5.07

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR leading at HT (DNB)	80.1%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Vasco da Gama leading at HT (DNB)	19.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw (1X)	88.1%	86.5%	76.0%	1.14×	1.16
Athletico-PR or Vasco da Gama (12)	80.9%	80.6%	72.7%	1.11×	1.24
Vasco da Gama or draw (X2)	31.0%	35.1%	51.1%	0.69×	2.85

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw at HT	87.2%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Athletico-PR or Vasco da Gama at HT	64.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Vasco da Gama or draw at HT	48.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw (1UP)	88.1%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Vasco da Gama or draw (1UP)	31.0%	38.7%	—	—	2.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw in 2nd half	85.4%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Athletico-PR or Vasco da Gama in 2nd half	70.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Vasco da Gama or draw in 2nd half	43.7%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.7%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	46.3%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (DNB)	85.3%	87.0%	67.1%	1.30×	1.15
Vasco da Gama (DNB)	14.7%	13.0%	32.9%	0.40×	7.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score first	69.1%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
Vasco da Gama to score first	26.2%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
No goal scored	4.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.19

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.9%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.1%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.9%	41.6%	38.3%	1.09×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	28.5%	33.3%	38.9%	0.86×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	17.6%	21.6%	9.5%	2.26×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	13.7%	0.61×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.9%	82.6%	87.1%	0.95×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.1%	17.4%	12.9%	1.35×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.0%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Both score 1st half only	13.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.9%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.2%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
A half without a goal	36.8%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.7%	42.1%	49.7%	0.85×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.7%	35.1%	24.3%	1.45×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.0%	20.2%	25.7%	0.79×	4.95
7+ goals	4.6%	1.9%	0.6%	2.91×	54.04

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 0	41.1%	37.3%	34.6%	1.08×	2.68
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 2	16.2%	19.6%	19.0%	1.03×	5.11
Vasco da Gama to score 3+	6.1%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score 3+	41.4%	35.2%	18.6%	1.90×	2.84
Athletico-PR to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.5%	27.1%	0.98×	3.77
Athletico-PR to score exactly 1	22.6%	23.3%	34.3%	0.68×	4.29
Athletico-PR to score exactly 0	9.7%	10.3%	20.3%	0.51×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR leading at HT	51.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Draw at HT	35.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Vasco da Gama leading at HT	12.8%	12.2%	—	—	8.18

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR -1: 1	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Athletico-PR -1: 2	31.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Athletico-PR -1: X	22.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:1)	46.8%	46.1%	23.2%	1.99×	2.17
Vasco da Gama (0:1)	31.0%	30.1%	51.1%	0.59×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	22.2%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:2)	53.2%	58.1%	76.8%	0.76×	1.72
Athletico-PR (0:2)	26.2%	24.0%	9.2%	2.61×	4.17
Draw (0:2)	20.6%	20.3%	14.1%	1.44×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:3)	73.8%	77.8%	90.8%	0.86×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	13.9%	10.0%	6.7%	1.50×	10.03
Athletico-PR (0:3)	12.3%	9.9%	2.7%	3.69×	10.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:4)	87.7%	91.9%	97.3%	0.94×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.4%	4.6%	1.7%	2.65×	21.62
Athletico-PR (0:4)	4.9%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.56

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (1:0)	88.1%	86.1%	76.0%	1.13×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.0%	6.9%	14.6%	0.47×	14.49
Vasco da Gama (1:0)	3.9%	3.3%	9.5%	0.34×	30.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (2:0)	96.1%	96.8%	90.5%	1.07×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	6.2%	0.37×	43.64
Vasco da Gama (2:0)	0.9%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.7%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to concede	58.9%	60.7%	65.4%	0.93×	1.65
Athletico-PR clean sheet	41.1%	39.3%	34.6%	1.14×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR clean sheet in 1st half	70.1%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Athletico-PR to concede in 1st half	29.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR clean sheet in 2nd half	58.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Athletico-PR to concede in 2nd half	41.3%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR over 2.5 corners	76.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Athletico-PR under 6.5 corners	76.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Athletico-PR under 5.5 corners	66.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Athletico-PR over 3.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Athletico-PR under 4.5 corners	53.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Athletico-PR over 4.5 corners	46.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Athletico-PR under 3.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Athletico-PR over 5.5 corners	33.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Athletico-PR under 2.5 corners	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Athletico-PR over 6.5 corners	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR over 0.5 goals	90.3%	92.2%	79.7%	1.16×	1.08
Athletico-PR under 3.5 goals	79.2%	77.7%	94.3%	0.82×	1.29
Athletico-PR over 1.5 goals	67.8%	68.0%	45.6%	1.49×	1.47
Athletico-PR under 2.5 goals	58.6%	58.6%	81.4%	0.72×	1.71
Athletico-PR over 2.5 goals	41.4%	41.4%	18.6%	2.23×	2.42
Athletico-PR under 1.5 goals	32.2%	32.0%	54.4%	0.59×	3.12
Athletico-PR over 3.5 goals	20.8%	22.3%	5.7%	3.89×	4.49
Athletico-PR under 0.5 goals	9.7%	7.8%	20.3%	0.38×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 1.5 in 1st half	73.4%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Athletico-PR over 0.5 in 1st half	63.4%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Athletico-PR under 0.5 in 1st half	36.6%	35.3%	—	—	2.84
Athletico-PR over 1.5 in 1st half	26.6%	20.7%	—	—	4.82

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR scores more in 2nd half	44.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Athletico-PR scores more in 1st half	28.2%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Athletico-PR scores equally in both	27.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	61.7%	60.0%	53.3%	1.13×	1.67
Vasco da Gama (home no bet)	38.3%	40.0%	46.7%	0.86×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR even goals	50.5%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Athletico-PR odd goals	49.5%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 1-0	25.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 2-0	13.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	9.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 0-1	9.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	8.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Draw at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	19.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Draw at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Athletico-PR at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Vasco da Gama at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Vasco da Gama at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Athletico-PR at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.75

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score last	69.2%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Vasco da Gama to score last	26.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
No goal scored	4.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.19

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.3%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Athletico-PR to lead by 1 at any time	79.7%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.8%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Athletico-PR to lead by 2 at any time	53.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	31.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Vasco da Gama to lead by 1 at any time	30.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Athletico-PR to lead by 3 at any time	29.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Vasco da Gama to lead by 2 at any time	7.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.90
Vasco da Gama to lead by 3 at any time	1.6%	1.6%	—	—	63.09

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama most corners	46.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Athletico-PR most corners	43.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.5%	83.4%	88.7%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.4%	78.7%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.9%	72.4%	81.7%	0.89×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.2%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.0%	59.1%	47.1%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.0%	53.2%	68.7%	0.77×	1.88
3-5 goals	51.7%	53.2%	43.0%	1.24×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.7%	43.6%	49.7%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	36.0%	1.21×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.7%	39.2%	24.3%	1.61×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.7%	35.2%	45.9%	0.77×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.5%	30.2%	20.2%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.8%	18.8%	11.3%	1.67×	5.31
7+ goals	4.6%	2.6%	0.6%	4.04×	39.02

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR never behind	65.2%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Vasco da Gama never behind	15.6%	18.1%	—	—	5.51

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.4%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.6%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.6%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.5%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.3%	95.4%	93.3%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.2%	87.6%	95.2%	0.92×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.0%	82.3%	74.3%	1.11×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	77.6%	77.3%	88.3%	0.88×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.5%	61.7%	47.6%	1.30×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.7%	58.6%	75.2%	0.78×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	40.3%	41.4%	24.8%	1.67×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	37.5%	38.3%	52.4%	0.73×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	22.4%	22.7%	11.7%	1.93×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.0%	17.7%	25.7%	0.69×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.8%	12.4%	4.8%	2.60×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.7%	4.6%	6.7%	0.69×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.1%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.8%	86.7%	94.9%	0.91×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.6%	75.9%	64.9%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.8%	72.4%	86.5%	0.84×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.8%	51.9%	32.1%	1.62×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.2%	48.1%	67.9%	0.71×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.2%	27.6%	13.5%	2.04×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.4%	24.1%	35.1%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.2%	13.3%	5.1%	2.59×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.9%	2.8%	0.7%	4.25×	35.52

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.3%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.2%	71.7%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.4%	63.1%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.6%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.8%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.7%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.3%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	28.7%	22.5%	—	—	4.45
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves	87.7%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Athletico-PR not to score in both halves	53.3%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Athletico-PR to score in both halves	46.7%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Vasco da Gama to score in both halves	12.3%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.9%	53.9%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Athletico-PR scores	36.4%	39.9%	28.1%	1.42×	2.51
Only Vasco da Gama scores	4.9%	4.6%	13.8%	0.33×	21.65
Neither team scores	4.7%	4.6%	6.7%	0.69×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.4%	22.6%	26.8%	0.84×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.9%	17.5%	13.2%	1.33×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	11.6%	12.1%	7.1%	1.70×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.3%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.8%	12.1%	4.8%	2.55×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.7%	4.5%	6.7%	0.67×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.6%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	15.7%	15.6%	—	—	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	55.9%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.4%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	15.7%	16.4%	—	—	6.11

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win both halves	98.1%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Athletico-PR not to win both halves	70.9%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Athletico-PR to win both halves	29.1%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
Vasco da Gama to win both halves	1.9%	2.8%	—	—	36.02

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to win either half	78.5%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Vasco da Gama to win neither half	74.6%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Vasco da Gama to win either half	25.4%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Athletico-PR to win neither half	21.5%	20.1%	—	—	4.99

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win to nil	95.1%	96.1%	86.2%	1.11×	1.04
Athletico-PR not to win to nil	63.6%	66.6%	71.9%	0.93×	1.50
Athletico-PR to win to nil	36.4%	33.4%	28.1%	1.19×	2.99
Vasco da Gama to win to nil	4.9%	3.9%	13.8%	0.28×	25.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR by 3+	26.2%	27.9%	9.2%	3.03×	3.59
Athletico-PR by 1	22.2%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Athletico-PR by 2	20.6%	24.1%	14.1%	1.71×	4.15
Draw	19.1%	17.1%	27.3%	0.62×	5.87
Vasco da Gama by 1	8.0%	7.2%	14.6%	0.49×	13.91
Vasco da Gama by 2	3.0%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.81
Vasco da Gama by 3+	0.9%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.88